2025 is a pivotal moment for climate action. Countries are submitting new climate commitments, otherwise known as "Nationally Determined Contributions" or "NDCs," that will shape the trajectory of global climate progress through 2035.These new commitments will show how boldly countries plan to cut their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, transform their economies, and strengthen resilience to growing threats like extreme weather, wildfires and floods. Collectively, they will determine how far the world goes toward limiting global temperature rise and avoiding the worst climate impacts.A few countries, such as the U.S., U.K. and Brazil, have already put forward new climate plans — and their ambition is a mixed bag. But it’s still early: Many more countries, including major emitters like the EU and China, have yet to reveal their NDCs and are expected to do so in the coming months.We analyzed the initial submissions for a snapshot of how countries’ climate plans are shaping up so far and what they reveal about the road ahead.Where the World Stands on Curbing Climate Change TodayA decade ago, the world was headed toward 3.7-4.8 degrees C (6.7-8.6 degrees F) of warming by 2100, threatening catastrophic weather, devastating biodiversity loss and widespread economic disruptions. In response, the Paris Agreement set a global goal: limit temperature rise to well below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and strive to limit it to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), thresholds scientists say can significantly lessen climate hazards. Though some impacts are inevitable — with extreme heat, storms, fires and floods already worsening — lower levels of warming dramatically reduce their severity. Every fraction of a degree matters.To keep the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals within reach, countries agreed to submit new NDCs every five years. These national plans detail how (and how much) each country will cut emissions, how they’ll adapt to climate impacts like droughts and rising seas, and what support they’ll need to deliver on those efforts. Countries have gone through two rounds of NDCs so far, in 2015 and 2020-2021, with their commitments extending through 2030. While the latest NDCs cut emissions more deeply than those from 2015, they still fall short of the ambition needed to hold warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees C. If fully implemented (including measures that require international support), they could bring down projected warming to 2.6-2.8 degrees C (4.7-5 degrees F). And without stronger policies to meet countries’ targets, the world could be heading for a far more dangerous 3.1 degrees C (5.6 degrees F) of warming by 2100.Now the third round is underway, with countries expected to set climate targets through 2035.These new NDCs are expected to reflect the outcomes of the 2023 Global Stocktake, which was the first comprehensive assessment of global climate progress under the Paris Agreement. In addition to bigger emissions cuts in line with holding warming to 1.5 degrees C, the Stocktake called on countries to act swiftly in areas that matter most for addressing the climate crisis — especially fossil fuels, renewables, transport and forests — and to do more to build resilience to climate impacts.2025 NDCs are also an opportunity to align near-term climate action with longer-term goals. Over 100 countries have already pledged to reach net-zero emissions, most by around mid-century. Their new NDCs should chart a course toward achieving this.How Many Countries Have Submitted New NDCs? Under the Paris Agreement’s timeline, 2025 NDCs were technically due in February. As of late May, only a small proportion of countries had submitted them, covering around a quarter of global emissions. These early movers include a diverse mix of developed and developing nations from different regions and economic backgrounds.Among the G20 — the world’s largest GHG emitters — only five countries submitted new NDCs so far: Canada, Brazil, Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom. (Since submitting its NDC, the U.S. announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.)Several smaller and highly climate-vulnerable countries have also stepped forward, including Ecuador and Uruguay in Latin America; Kenya, Zambia and Zimbabwe in Africa; and island states such as Singapore, the Marshall Islands and the Maldives.That means close to 90% of countries have yet to submit their new NDCs.There are several reasons for this. The last round of NDCs was pushed back by a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, giving countries only four years to prepare new plans. Geopolitical tensions, ongoing conflicts and security concerns have further complicated progress. Many smaller developing nations are also facing capacity constraints as they work to complete biennial climate progress reports and new national adaptation plans (NAPs), also due this year.Most countries are now expected to present their new NDCs by the UN General Assembly in September.How Much Have New NDCs Reduced the Emissions Gap?Compared to previous targets, the NDCs submitted so far have made a noticeable but modest dent in the 2035 "emissions gap": the difference between where emissions need to be in 2035 to align with 1.5 degrees C and where they’re expected to be under countries’ new climate plans.If fully implemented, new unconditional NDCs (those that don’t require international support) are projected to reduce emissions by 1.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2035 when compared to 2030. Including conditional targets (those dependent on receiving international support), countries could reduce emissions by 1.5 GtCO2e compared to previous NDCs. Much of the progress in narrowing the gap comes from major emitters that have already submitted new NDCs — most notably the U.S., Japan and Brazil. Given their large emissions profiles, their new commitments account for the majority of the reductions seen so far.While this marks progress, it’s far from what’s needed to keep global warming within safe limits. Getting on track to 1.5 or even 2 degrees C would require much steeper cuts than what’s currently on the table.However, this is not the full picture.Many of the world’s largest emitters have yet to submit their 2035 targets. The remaining G20 countries alone account for about two-thirds of global GHG emissions. This makes their forthcoming NDCs especially important: The scale and ambition of these commitments could meaningfully narrow the emissions gap — or, if they fall short, leave the world locked into a trajectory that puts global temperature targets out of reach.Emissions-reduction targets put forward by major emitters so far:CountryReference YearPrevious 2030 Emissions-Reduction TargetNew 2035 Emissions-Reduction TargetsNet-Zero Target YearBrazil200553.1%59%-67%2050Canada200540%-45%45%-50%2050Japan201346%60%2050United Kingdom199068%81%2050United States200550%-52%61%-66%2050RelatedWhat Would Ambitious Climate Commitments Look Like for the World’s Top Emitters?How Do Specific Countries’ Climate Plans Stack Up?Among the countries that have submitted new NDCs so far, the United Kingdom stands out for its ambitious climate trajectory. Following the recommendations of its Climate Change Committee, the U.K. has set a bold target to reduce emissions 81% by 2035 from 1990 levels. This rapid decline in the coming decade would put the country on track toward its net zero goal by 2050, based on realistic rates of technology deployment and ambitious but achievable shifts in consumer and business behavior.Other countries, such as Japan and the United States, have opted for a "linear" approach toward net zero — meaning if they drew a straight line to their net-zero target (for example, 0 GtCO2e in 2050), their 2030 and 2035 targets would fall along it, reflecting a constant decline in emissions each year. Japan aims to cut emissions 60% from 2013 levels by 2035, while the United States has pledged a 61%-66% reduction from 2005 levels by 2035.Despite the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, undermining climate policies and attempting to dismantle key government institutions, its NDC target may still provide a framework for climate action at the state, city and local levels, as well as for future administrations. Many of these entities have already rallied around the new NDC and are committed to making progress toward its targets.However, the linear approach Japan and the U.S. are taking to emissions reductions — as opposed to a steeper decline this decade — risks using up a larger share of the world’s carbon budget earlier and compromising global temperature targets.Brazil presented a broader range of emissions targets in its NDC, committing to a 59%-67% reduction by 2035 from 2005 levels. These two poles represent a marked difference in ambition: A 67% reduction could put Brazil on track for climate neutrality by 2050, while a 59% reduction falls short of what’s needed to meet that goal. It is unclear which trajectory the government intends to pursue, leaving Brazil’s true ambition in question. The NDC also omits carbon budgets for specific sectors (such as energy, transport or agriculture), which would clarify how it plans to meet its overarching emissions goals. However, Brazil committed within its NDC to develop further plans outlining how each sector will contribute to its 2035 target.Elsewhere, Canada made only a marginal increase to its target, shifting from a 40%-45% emissions reduction by 2030 to 45%-50% by 2035 from 2005 levels. This falls short of the recommendation from Canada’s own Net-Zero Advisory Body, which called for a 50%-55% reduction by 2035 — and warned that anything below 50% risks derailing progress toward the country’s legislated net-zero goal by 2050. While every increase in ambition counts, such incremental changes do not match the urgent pace of progress needed among developed and wealthy economies like Canada. What Trends Are Emerging Among NDCs Submitted So Far?Several early trends are starting to emerge among the new NDCs. While these initial submissions offer valuable insights, they don’t yet reflect the full picture; deeper analysis will be needed as more NDCs come in throughout the year.1) Nearly all new NDCs include 2035 mitigation measures, with many setting economy-wide emissions-reduction targets.Almost all of the 22 NDCs submitted thus far include 2035 mitigation measures. The exception is Zambia, which reiterated its previous 2030 pledges in a provisional NDC (although this may still be revised to include 2035 mitigation measures).Of the other 21 submissions, 20 countries expressed their 2035 targets as emissions-reduction goals. The exception was Cuba, which instead committed to increasing renewable electricity generation to 26% and improving energy efficiency by 2035.Seventeen of the 20 countries with emissions-reduction goals set economy-wide reduction targets for 2035, as encouraged by the Global Stocktake, covering all sectors and greenhouse gases. The remaining few — smaller developing countries such as the Maldives and Nepal — submitted targets that cover only specific sectors or gases.Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries are required to submit economy-wide targets, while developing countries are encouraged to work toward them over time. In Nepal’s case, for instance, a lack of comprehensive data limited its ability to define an economy-wide target or fully assess the impact of its policies.2) Most countries did not strengthen their 2030 targets.Despite clear scientific evidence and UN decisions urging stronger 2030 targets, only four countries — Saint Lucia, Nepal, Moldova and Montenegro — have strengthened their 2030 emissions pledges. For example, Montenegro revised its emissions-reduction target from 35% to 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, and set a 60% emissions-reduction target by 2035. Notably, none of the wealthier, high-emitting and more developed countries have strengthened their 2030 targets — despite having the greatest capacity and responsibility to take the lead on slashing emissions.3) Countries are increasingly prioritizing adaptation.In the face of worsening climate impacts, 16 of the 22 countries that have submitted new NDCs strengthened their adaptation commitments — continuing a trend seen in previous rounds. Countries are prioritizing adaptation across sectors such as food and water systems, public health and nature-based solutions. Canadian firefighters in 2021. After being ravaged by wildfires in recent years, Canada’s new national climate plan puts an emphasis on climate adaptation and disaster resilience. Photo by nathan4847/iStock Ecuador, which is particularly vulnerable to heavy rainfall and floods, prioritized action to build resilience of its water resources, human health and settlements, as well as its natural heritage. Some developed countries are also prioritizing adaptation action in their NDCs. Canada, which has witnessed devastating wildfires in recent years, cited its National Adaptation Strategy, which provides a framework for disaster resilience, biodiversity, public health and infrastructure.4) Countries are recognizing the importance of subnational action.Some countries’ NDCs also recognize the critical role that subnational actors — such as cities, states and regions — play in shaping and delivering climate action.Eleven of the newly submitted NDCs come from countries that have endorsed the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP). The CHAMP initiative was launched in 2023 by WRI and partners to strengthen collaboration between national and subnational governments on climate planning and implementation. As part of this commitment, 75 countries pledged to consult with and integrate subnational priorities and needs into their NDCs. Of the 11 endorsing countries that have submitted new NDCs, four explicitly mentioned CHAMP.Brazil’s NDC in particular recognizes the critical role subnational governments play in delivering national climate goals. Referred to as "climate federalism," it highlights an instrument designed to support the integration of climate action into planning and decision-making across all levels of government: federal, state and municipal.RelatedTrack New NDCs as They’re Submitted on Climate WatchHow Are Countries Addressing Key Areas like Energy, Forestry and Transport?As countries submit new NDCs for the first time since the Global Stocktake in 2023, a clearer picture is emerging of how governments are embedding sector-specific action into their new climate plans. From detailed emissions-reduction targets to broader policy frameworks, most NDCs are setting out concrete steps to cut emissions across sectors that largely drive climate change, such as energy, transport and forestry.Some countries — such as Switzerland, the UAE, Kenya and Zimbabwe — have included sector-specific emissions-reduction targets directly in their NDCs. Switzerland’s targets, for instance are aligned with its Climate and Innovation Act, with plans to cut emissions by 66% in buildings, 41% in transport and 42.5% in industry by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. Kenya, on the other hand, has set an ambitious target to achieve 100% renewable electricity generation in the national grid by 2035.Others, like the United Kingdom, Brazil, Singapore, the Marshall Islands and Canada, have focused on elaborating national policies and strategies that respond to the Global Stocktake’s priority areas. The U.K.’s NDC highlighted its Clean Power 2030 Action Plan to fully decarbonize electricity by 2030; the Warm Homes Plan to boost energy efficiency in residential buildings; and reaffirmed its plans for phasing out internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030. Paulista Avenue in São Paulo, Brazil, is car-free on Sundays to allow for more pedestrians and cyclists. Brazil has promised to submit new sectoral plans laying out what it will do in specific areas, like transport, to meet its broader climate goals. Photo by William Rodrigues dos Santos/Alamy Stock Photo Countries such as Brazil and New Zealand have committed to developing detailed sectoral strategies as a next step to support NDC implementation. Brazil plans to update its national climate strategy by mid-2025, breaking it down into 16 sectoral adaptation plans and seven mitigation plans. New Zealand committed to publishing its emissions-reduction plan for 2031-2035 in 2029, which will set out sectoral mitigation strategies to help deliver on its NDC.As more countries prepare to submit their new NDCs, attention will focus on whether they follow the trend of outlining sector-specific actions to meet their broader emissions targets. In particular, the spotlight will be on how countries plan to contribute to the transition away from fossil fuels — the single largest driver of the climate crisis.RelatedLearn More About How Countries Can Incorporate Sectoral Targets in NDCsLooking Ahead, All Eyes Are on 3 Major EmittersWe have yet to see new NDCs from many major emitters, including the European Union, China and India. All three have demonstrated climate leadership in various ways, and their actions will set the tone for future climate efforts. While these three are in the spotlight, attention will also be on other key countries — such as Indonesia, Mexico and Australia -— that are critical to reducing the global emissions gap.European UnionThe EU is still working to set a 2035 emissions target for its new NDC, which will hinge on its longer-term 2040 target. Last year, the European Commission recommended cutting emissions 90% by 2040 — a move that’s seen as beneficial for enhancing industrial competitiveness in clean technologies, strengthening energy security and cutting energy costs. Some EU member states have suggested following a linear trajectory between the 2030 and 2040 targets, which would imply a 72.5% reduction by 2035 if the 90% target for 2040 gets adopted.However, European member states have yet to adopt the 90% target. Ongoing discussions could see the EU’s target weakened to address concerns from heavy industry and agriculture. The delay in finalizing the EU’s 2040 target is also putting its NDC timeline at risk, raising the possibility of missing the expected September submission date.ChinaAs the world’s largest emitter, China’s NDC will be critical to keeping global temperature goals within reach. The country has already made major strides in clean energy, leading the world in solar power and electric vehicle deployment. However, a surge in coal plant approvals post-pandemic has raised concerns about its path toward net zero by 2060.China’s 2035 emission target will be the first in a post-peak emissions context. Studies aligned with 1.5 degrees C and China’s net-zero pledge suggest the need for sharper cuts by 2030 and continued deep reductions through 2035. In this context, some research suggests that China could reduce CO2 emissions 30% by 2035 (compared to 2020) on the way to achieve its net zero target by 2060.President Xi Jinping announced in April that China will submit its updated NDC ahead of the UN climate summit (COP30) this November, covering all sectors and greenhouse gases. This marks a notable shift for the country: Its previous NDCs covered only CO2, but China’s non-CO2 emissions alone place it among the world’s top 10 emitters.IndiaUnlike other major economies, India has some of the lowest per capita emissions, and its national emissions are still growing as the country works to eradicate poverty and achieve development goals. This means its emissions are not expected to decline by 2035, though some studies suggest earlier declines are needed. Rapid advances in renewable energy and clean technology offer a significant opportunity for the country to accelerate its low-carbon transition while also ensuring energy security and economic competitiveness.Strengthening renewable energy commitments in India’s next NDC — building upon its domestic target of 500 GW by 2030 — could chart a pathway for sustainable growth, while also delivering co-benefits like cleaner air and enhanced energy security.What’s Next for NDCs?The UN climate change body (UNFCCC) will release an NDC synthesis report ahead of this year’s COP30 climate summit, assessing the collective impact of the new pledges submitted to that point. While this report will solidify where we’re headed in relation to the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals, the storyline is already clear: New NDCs will not put the world on track to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C.The emissions gap is likely to remain dangerously wide, and the report will reaffirm what we already know — that much greater ambition and action are needed. Still, the findings will serve as a key input for this year’s climate conference, where countries will decide on next steps to narrow that gap. They must address what comes after NDCs, grappling with how to turn ambition into action and keep a safer future within reach.Ultimately, putting forward strong plans — and fulfilling them — are essential levers: not only for limiting warming, but for safeguarding the health, prosperity and security of current and future generations.