Abstract Moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires in recent two decades have persistently perturbed global stratospheric aerosol loadings. Based on satellite observations and climate model simulations, we find that these events contribute to ∼67% of Antarctic stratospheric aerosol burden averaged over the last two decades. Our modeled analysis of hypothetical eruptions reveals distinct transport pathways controlled by injection location, season, and polar vortex conditions. For tropical injections, Antarctic stratospheric aerosol loading exhibits strong dependence on interannual polar vortex strength, with enhanced poleward transport during weak vortex years and significant transport barriers during strong vortex periods. Unlike tropical eruptions, mid‐latitude eruptions exhibit season‐dependent characteristics: austral summer injections cause high Antarctic aerosol loadings in the first October following injections, whereas winter injections lead to elevated second‐year October aerosol burdens. These findings on how polar vortex modulates aerosol transport provide important insights for minimizing Antarctic ozone depletion risks in potential stratospheric aerosol injection strategies.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: August 18, 2025 06:15 PM
Atmospheric CO₂
425.4 ppm
+18.4
ppm/year
Atmospheric CH₄
1934.91 ppb
+9.11
ppb/year
Global Temperature
+1.48 °C
Peak: +1.73°C
World Population
8.1 billion
+67
million/year