Abstract This study employs an explainable machine learning (ML) framework (XGBoost‐SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis) to investigate controlling factors on cloud liquid water path (LWP) using EPCAPE observations near the California coast. Aerosols are found to be the dominant factor explaining LWP variability, surpassing meteorological factors (MFs). By isolating aerosol effects from meteorological influences, the ML reveals a negative linear relationship between LWP and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) in log space, likely driven by entrainment drying via evaporation‐entrainment feedback. This aligns with the negative regime of the inverted‐V relationship reported in previous studies, while no positive LWP responses are found due to a limited number of precipitating cases in EPCAPE. Furthermore, the sensitivity of LWP to Nd shows a non‐linear dependence on MFs like moisture contrast between surface and free troposphere and lower‐tropospheric stability. This occurs due to the interplay between the MFs’ direct effects on entrainment drying and indirect effects through LWP adjustments.

Read original article