Desertification intensified by climate change and human activities poses major challenges to biodiversity conservation in dryland regions. In these areas, habitat fragmentation and weak spatial planning and management result in poor connectivity and low protection effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), hindering long-term biodiversity conservation and ecosystem stability. Therefore, based on the evolution of the PA network in the drylands of Central and East Asia from 2000 to 2030, this study integrates circuit theory and the MaxEnt model to systematically assess the protection capacity of PAs. A multi-dimensional optimization model—spatiotemporal change–connectivity–protection effectiveness (SCPE)—is proposed to optimize the PA network from three perspectives: spatial structure, functional performance, and climate adaptability. The results show that network connectivity improves most significantly under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, while protection effectiveness declines across all scenarios, indicating a growing spatial mismatch between PA distribution and biodiversity hotspots. Optimization based on the SCPE model effectively alleviates this mismatch, with the lowest demand for new corridors and buffer zones under SSP1-2.6 and the highest under SSP5-8.5. After optimization, IIC and PC increase by 49.90% and 49.41%, respectively, under SSP1-2.6, significantly enhancing network resilience. The findings demonstrate that the SCPE model, driven by function-oriented strategies, can effectively improve the connectivity and climate responsiveness of PA networks. This provides scientific support for adaptive conservation planning under climate change and offers practical tools for biodiversity conservation in dryland ecosystems.

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