Tailoring policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, cognizant of rapid population aging and shrinkage, is crucial for many developed nations. South Korea faces this issue, particularly owing to a rise in the nation’s average age at an unprecedented rate and a significantly low total fertility rate (TFR) (0.72 in 2023). Research on measures to reduce GHG emissions in an aging society with a declining birthrate has highlighted the importance of the structure of household carbon footprint (HCF) across different age groups. However, no studies have analyzed the structure of HCF across different age groups or the impact of demographic changes on HCF in South Korea. This study highlights the structures of HCF by age group in South Korea by combining a multi-regional input–output model with household and demographic surveys. Furthermore, we projected the effects of demographic changes in line with business-as-usual and an ambitious government policy for recovering the TFR (BaU and fertility rate recovery (FRR) Scenarios, respectively) on HCF from 2020 to 2050. These procedures revealed that the FRR will increase in 13.5 Mt-CO2eq in 2050, compared to BaU. This brings the HCF of senior generations (60 years and older) from 49.7% (BaU) to 48.3% (FRR) of the total HCF in 2050, slightly reducing their dominance of HCF. With the fertility recovery policy, the impact of an increase in the HCF of younger generations, aged 39 years and below, was limited until 2050. However, the rebound of HCF (e.g. education, entertainment and culture, restaurants, and hotels) must be considered in case the number of younger generations continues to increase, underlying national policies for fertility recovery.

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