The growing involvement of equity funds in agriculture intensifies speculative dynamics and creates new tensions between short-term financial performance and long-term ecological stewardship. Brazil, as one of the world’s largest agricultural exporter and biodiversity hotspots, exemplifies these dynamics. Using a cointegration modeling approach, we analyze data from 2006–2023 to uncover long-run equilibria and short-run forecasting power between farmland prices, agribusiness stock prices, and commodity prices in Brazil. We found that farmland prices not only co-move with commodity and stock prices but also Granger-cause financial valuations of agribusiness firms, suggesting that land is increasingly treated as a forward-looking financial indicator rather than a productive asset. The financialization of land markets, as evidenced by these dynamics, can complicate Brazil’s efforts to achieve sustainability goals if proper governance is not in place. To avoid risks of shareholder capitalism—i.e. maximize profits for its investors as primary goal at the expense of ecological or social aspects—, companies might incorporate environmental metrics into how they manage investments and by regulatory frameworks can require financial disclosures that clearly show ecological risks. Aligning financial stewardship with sustainability is not only good practice but also vital for the long-term resilience of land systems.

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