Sergio Díaz is legal director at the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. As governments submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of COP30, almost all of them share one glaring omission. While the climate plans speak of expanding renewables or boosting efficiency, almost none directly confront the other side of the equation – the production and use of fossil fuels. This silence is indefensible. Ignoring fossil fuels – the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions – not only defies scientific imperatives to cut emissions at the source, it undermines countries’ legal obligations under the Paris Agreement and customary international law, as clarified by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In contrast, decisive commitments would uphold their legal obligations, protect the 1.5C global warming threshold and secure the just transition the world urgently needs. For years, governments have deliberately sidestepped fossil fuels in their climate plans, highlighting renewables and net-zero targets while continuing to expand oil, fossil gas and coal with impunity. States know fossil fuels are driving the climate crisis, yet according to the latest Production Gap Report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), they still plan to produce 120% more by 2030 than is compatible with 1.5C.  Fossil fuel impunity That impunity needs to end. International courts have now removed any doubt that such conduct is not only scientifically reckless, it can also be unlawful. In its July advisory opinion, the ICJ – the world’s highest court – confirmed that states must act with due diligence to prevent significant environmental harm, and that the content of their NDCs matters. Submitting a plan that ignores fossil fuels while approving new drilling licenses or maintaining subsidies may constitute an internationally wrongful act. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights reached the same conclusion this year, ruling that states are legally obliged to regulate fossil fuel exploration, extraction, transport and processing in order to protect human rights. Sep 25, 2025 News Nigeria gives fossil gas a bigger role as “transition fuel” in climate plan Officials say the country needs time and money to ramp up renewables, but critics say betting on gas is a risky strategy that could prolong the “oil curse” Read more Oct 1, 2025 Energy Russia justifies fossil gas use by citing contentious COP28 loophole In Dubai two years ago, Russia pushed for a clause on “transitional fuels” which its new UN climate plan uses to justify gas consumption Read more Oct 10, 2025 News Angola lowers climate ambition in blow to “spirit” of Paris Agreement The country’s latest climate plan slashes its emissions-cutting target, a move the government says is realistic given Angola’s economic challenges and lack of international support Read more Two rare exceptions – Colombia and Vanuatu – show the legal and political pathway that others must now follow. Both countries explicitly address fossil fuel production and use in their updated NDCs, and have also joined calls for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. Colombia has suspended new oil and gas exploration contracts, is planning the phase-out of coal power, and has become the first Latin American country to endorse the Treaty initiative. While not a fossil fuel producer, Vanuatu, for its part, is spearheading the Pacific call for a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific and advocating for new governance structures such as a Pacific Energy Commissioner, alongside a global Fossil Fuel Treaty. As stated in its NDC, Vanuatu aims to steer the Pacific into becoming the “first region in the world to achieve the equitable phaseout of fossil fuel production and use”. Weak NDCs fuel climate disasters But for now, the example set by these two countries is the exception, not the rule. Excluding goals for cutting fossil fuel production or consumption from national climate plans is not a technical oversight – it is a failure with direct human and planetary costs. Every weak NDC and every new drilling licence means more lives lost: from deadly heatwaves to rising seas swallowing homes, to communities displaced by fires and floods. Instead, NDCs should include concrete measures to phase out fossil fuel production and consumption based on quantified equitable targets, halt new licensing, end subsidies and support workers and communities through a just transition. Failure to do so will undoubtedly pave the way for climate litigation worldwide, but sadly, not in time to prevent further climate catastrophes. The ICJ has spoken, science has spoken, communities on the frontlines have spoken, and the message is simple: the threat of fossil fuels must be addressed urgently and directly. Time for non-proliferation treaty But no country can take on this task alone, which is why Colombia and Vanuatu have joined a growing group of 17 countries calling for a global Fossil Fuel Treaty. What could a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty look like? Similar to past treaties that ended the spread of nuclear weapons or landmines, the pact would create a framework to halt fossil fuel expansion, phase out production fairly and mobilise the necessary finance for a just transition. It would not replace stronger, more ambitious NDCs, but instead help governments to deliver on their plans. As governments finalise their new NDCs, they should follow the path charted by Colombia, Vanuatu and other nations participating in the development of a Fossil Fuel Treaty to promote quantified fossil fuels phase-out targets, international cooperation and a livable, fair future for all. There is still time.  The post Countries must confront fossil fuels head-on in their NDCs appeared first on Climate Home News.

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