In a year marked by escalating climate impacts, economic headwinds, climate policy rollbacks and a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, the road to the 2025 UN climate summit (COP30) has been shaped by uncertainty and urgency. At the same time, the significant uptick of renewable energy in many countries signals important opportunities for progress.This article was written with input from the consortium Allied for Climate Transformation by 2025 (ACT2025), a group of experts and thought leaders from climate-vulnerable countries working to drive greater climate ambition on the international stage. Learn more about ACT2025 and its work here.While countries — including the most vulnerable — update their climate plans known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), the world is still collectively off track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). And the cost of falling short is already clear. Vulnerable communities worldwide are shouldering mounting death tolls from extreme weather events, disaster-induced internal displacement, and the disruption of global supply chains leading to food insecurity and reduced healthcare access. Tight global financing conditions and rising debt distress are systemic issues making matters worse.That’s not just a problem for climate-vulnerable countries: The impacts of climate change, undeterred by borders, will have direct and knock-on effects that will reverberate throughout the global economy and society.That is why COP30 is at a critical crossroads. Failure to deliver strong outcomes risks exacerbating vulnerable countries’ exposure to climate hazards, losing critical development gains, deepening inequality, and further eroding trust in international cooperation and diplomacy.On the other hand, climate action can provide important benefits for vulnerable countries, as we’ve seen with solar water heaters reducing household energy bills in Barbados, improved air quality in Nepal and Ethiopia with increased EV uptake, and more resilient agriculture across Africa. This year’s summit will be a vital test to find consensus, raise collective ambition, and turn it into real-world action and support.COP30 is set on the edge of the Amazon with the Brazilian presidency highlighting a renewed focus on ending forest loss, boosting climate finance and turning negotiations into action — all vital for climate-vulnerable countries. But will it deliver? For vulnerable countries, the stakes could not be higher. WRI COP30 Resource Hub WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.Attention now turns to the issues that will shape success or failure. At COP30, the ACT2025 consortium, a coalition of experts and thought leaders who amplify the voices of climate-vulnerable developing nations in climate negotiations, will be actively participating and watching how the summit responds to four critical questions:1) With the 1.5 Degree C Threshold Under Threat, What Does that Mean for COP30?After a flurry of announcements in September, over 60 countries have now submitted new national climate plans. But analysis shows the numbers aren’t adding up. So far, collective ambition falls short of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).At a moment when political will is waning, COP30 must deliver a political response to this ambition gap by acknowledging the 1.5 degree C goal is in grave jeopardy and emphasizing the need for major emitters, including all developed and G20 countries, to increase ambition before 2030 (recognizing they have the technological and financial tools to do so). This means taking forward the Global Stocktake goals to triple renewables, double energy efficiency, transition away from fossil fuels, halt forest loss, scale-up sustainable transport and more. Leaders must demonstrate, for example at the COP30 Leaders’ Summit, how they will go above and beyond current commitments to urgently align with what the science demands.At the same time, COP30 should welcome and encourage strengthened commitments, celebrate the decade of progress since the Paris Agreement, and provide a forward-looking vision grounded in implementation, transparency and accountability. NDCs cannot be treated as stand-alone documents — they must be aligned with long-term strategies, National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and sectoral pathways in energy, transport, land use and industry that deliver real-world, whole-of-society transformation. Climate plans must also address the dual challenges of mitigation and adaptation, ensuring that pathways reflect equity by addressing both the urgent need to cut emissions and the pressing realities of climate impacts faced by vulnerable communities.It was climate-vulnerable countries, in particular small island developing states (SIDS), who pushed for the Paris Agreement to include the more ambitious stretch goal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. They remain its guardians — the moral compass of the negotiations and the defenders of a target that is critical to their survival. We can expect their steely determination to not let it slide.Although Earth exceeded 1.5 degrees C of warming in 2024, this threshold is not like flipping a switch — it’s more like adjusting a thermostat. Every fraction of a degree matters, and strong, consistent changes make the difference between staying within safe limits or not. The fight is not lost, but recovery depends on immediate and decisive action. 2) How Can Real Progress on Climate-Vulnerable Countries’ Priorities Be Made During COP30 Negotiations?Making progress across three issues  will be critical:Following up on implementation of the new climate finance goalFor vulnerable developing countries, the quantity and quality of financial support for the implementation of climate action has important long-term catalytic benefits, making accelerated and timely delivery of support from developed countries essential. Overall success at COP30 hinges on whether the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance(NCQG) can springboard a financial response that includes public grant-based and other highly concessional instruments, without worsening unsustainable debt burdens, and that mobilizes quality private investment, especially for climate-vulnerable developing nations. Formal and informal negotiations must focus on clarifying how to accelerate the implementation of the NQCG to deliver at least $300 billion and its upscaling to $1.3 trillion annually by 2035, with developed countries taking the lead and with clear signals on how to triple financial flows of the multilateral climate funds (from 2022 levels by 2030). For climate-vulnerable nations, this level of finance is essential to implement climate plans and turn targets into concrete action. The Baku to Belém Roadmap to $1.3 trillion will be an important delivery vehicle in this regard, as it can help establish strong interlinkages and synergies with ongoing initiatives outside the UNFCCC regime on sovereign debt issues, reforms of international financial institutions including multilateral development banks (MDBs), as well as innovative instruments such as solidarity levies to holistically deliver for climate action. For climate-vulnerable countries, it is important for the Roadmap to be in line with the purpose of the NCQG (i.e. to support implementation of developing countries’ climate plans, contribute to increasing and accelerating ambition, and reflect the evolving needs and priorities of developing countries); provide guidance on scaling up grant-based public finance for adaptation, resilience and addressing loss and damage; and that sufficient transparency and accountability arrangements are embedded. Enhancing finance and tracking for adaptation Finalizing how the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) will be put into action will be front-and-center at COP30. First, countries are likely to adopt a set of indicators to track progress towards the achievement of the GGA and its framework targets, which span different sectors and the adaptation policy cycle. These indicators go beyond technical assessment — they can offer a more granular and harmonized catalogue of adaptation and resilience action and support, nudging greater alignment and transparency across sectors for governments, businesses and financial actors. A top priority for climate-vulnerable nations will be ensuring the final set of indicators includes those that adequately track delivery of quality finance, capacity building and technology support. This is important for effective implementation of the GGA and its framework targets.Second, countries must determine what’s next for adaptation finance given that the Glasgow pledge to double adaptation finance (from 2019 levels) expires this year. This could be through a new goal on adaptation finance, new pledges and fund replenishments (in particular to the Adaptation Fund), as well as MDB commitments to invest in adaptation and climate resilience in vulnerable countries.Despite the notable progress since the Glasgow goal was adopted in 2021, adaptation remains underfunded, with the current adaptation finance gap estimated at up to $359 billion per year. There is a risk that adaptation finance may stagnate without deliberate prioritization and delivery; countries are calling for this to be addressed, for example by tripling adaptation finance from 2022 levels by 2030 or through a new needs-based goal to respond to the evolving adaptation needs of developing countries as expressed in the IPCC assessments, the Global Stocktake outcome, and NDCs and NAPs.  Combining increased financial flows with more effective tracking of adaptation action can help enhance incentives for high-impact investments in adaptation and provide a clearer picture of overall progress. In other words, better tracking could raise global standards for adaptation finance and help ensure funds drive meaningful domestic action where they are most needed. Indeed, investing in climate resilience and adaptation strengthens national economies and human security by protecting infrastructure, securing food and water systems, and reducing climate-related shocks. Accelerating progress will require not only tracking but also that adaptation and resilience are embedded within broader national planning and investment strategies across sectors. Building a coherent architecture for loss and damage solutionsLoss and damage action and financing have received less attention ahead of COP30, but they remain key priorities for climate-vulnerable developing countries. There is urgent need for further capitalization of the recently created Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) with sufficient and predictable resources beyond current pledges. To best support countries, the FRLD should prioritize non-debt-inducing financial instruments, direct access modalities by national entities via simplified application procedures, and expedited funding for the urgent needs of vulnerable countries.Additionally, sustaining the Santiago Network (which provides technical assistance for the implementation of averting, minimize and addressing loss and damage) through the provision of adequate support is essential to delivering technical assistance on loss and damage —with about $40 million in pledged funding available, the Santiago Network is ready to receive and approve more technical assistance requests. COP30 must mobilize funding to ensure the Santiago Network can continue operating, respond to country requests and expand its regional presence. COP30 must also use the third review of the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to align and strengthen coordination between the WIM, FRLD, Santiago Network and national mechanisms. This is a critical opportunity to establish a coherent, responsive, and rights-based global loss and damage architecture—and it must not be missed. Doing so urgently will prompt solutions-driven dialogues that are more meaningfully driven by the voices of climate-vulnerable nations.3) Will Multilateralism Hold Strong at COP30?For climate-vulnerable countries to have the best chance of achieving strong results, they must have an equal seat at the table — an essential characteristic of the UNFCCC. In addition to increasing attacks on multilateralism and international cooperation, vulnerable countries are also affected by the fact that they have fewer financial and technical resources at their disposal to devote to international climate change decision-making and engagement. Delegations, for example from least developed countries and SIDS, are often fewer in number compared to those of developed countries. The high cost of accommodation in Belém is further creating a logistical headache, putting climate-vulnerable country representation under even more pressure. Ensuring adequate and meaningful representation is itself a test of the inclusiveness and fairness of COP30.Nevertheless, the defense of climate multilateralism is key to the Brazilian presidency’s approach to COP30. With the U.S. government’s announcement to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and many donor countries slashing overseas development aid, climate-vulnerable countries are looking for signals that global cooperation remains a priority. Reaffirming multilateralism at COP30 can help rebuild trust by accelerating the implementation of the Paris Agreement and connecting climate action to the real needs and efforts of people on the ground. In doing so, collective action will drive transformative change that leaves no one behind.4) What Impact Will the Recent ICJ ruling Have on COP30?In July 2025, after a multi-year campaign initiated by Vanuatu and supported by vulnerable countries and communities, youth groups and allies worldwide, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, Netherlands, issued an unprecedented and unanimous advisory opinion on the obligations of states in respect of climate change. The UN’s principal judicial body ruled that states have an obligation to protect the environment from greenhouse gas emissions and act with due diligence and cooperation to fulfill this duty. The ruling also reinforced that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) is, de facto, the global goal to strive for and it is not optional.Countries have a chance to meet the bar set by the ICJ, which emphasized that national climate commitments should reflect their highest ambition possible. High-emitting countries will face increasing moral and legal pressure as a result of the ruling. It gives vulnerable developing countries a potential new tool for holding major polluters to account, and it also emphasizes the duty of cooperation, particularly in terms of financing, technology transfer and support. The COP30 outcome could integrate these messages from the ICJ ruling. COP30 is Our Chance to Course-CorrectAs we navigate the intricate landscape of global climate action in 2025, ramping up ambition and scaling support for implementation is imperative. This year’s outcomes must be decisive in establishing a robust global framework capable of addressing the multi-faceted challenges of climate change effectively.Governments must use COP30 as an opportunity to catch up with the world’s rapidly changing realities. The task is urgent: The world must move further and faster to ensure the most vulnerable countries, communities and people can build their own resilience — not only to survive, but to thrive. Time is a critical resource we cannot replenish, and for climate vulnerable countries, it’s fast running out.

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