Abstract Rapid temperature variability (RTV) is a key indicator of short‐term climate variability. This study assesses future RTV changes under carbon neutrality using multi‐model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1‐1.9 (SSP1‐1.9) scenario. We further perform attribution experiments with the fully coupled Community Earth System Model to quantify the role of greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols (AER), and tropospheric ozone (O3) in driving projected RTV changes. Our results reveal a substantial decline in RTV across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) under carbon neutrality, especially at mid‐to‐high latitudes in winter and summer. This decline in RTV is primarily attributed to reduced temperature advection variability and changes in daily net surface radiative forcing. Reductions in aerosols exert the strongest impacts on RTV, surpassing the effects of GHGs and tropospheric O3. The findings highlight the critical role of aerosol reductions in modulating short‐term climate fluctuation.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: October 26, 2025 06:14 AM
Atmospheric CO₂
425.2 ppm
+18.5
ppm/year
Atmospheric CH₄
1933.54 ppb
+12.29
ppb/year
Global Temperature
+1.48 °C
Peak: +1.73°C
World Population
8.1 billion
+67
million/year