Abstract The previously robust linkage between early autumn (September–October) sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) and the subsequent East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) has undergone a significant decadal shift, weakening markedly after 2007. The correlation coefficient between early autumn BKS SIC and the EAWM index dropped from −0.521 during 1979–2007 to −0.101 during 2008–2023. This dramatically weakened linkage is attributed to the continuous and substantial reduction in BKS SIC that has led to nearly ice‐free conditions and a marked decrease in its interannual variability. Compared to 1979–2007, the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies during 2008–2023 show a diminished tropospheric response and a fundamental reversal in the stratospheric pathway. These profound changes in BKS SIC severely hinder the predictability of the EAWM in recent decades.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: November 30, 2025 04:25 AM
Atmospheric CO₂
426.8 ppm
+18.1
ppm/year
Atmospheric CH₄
1927.61 ppb
+2.73
ppb/year
Global Temperature
+1.48 °C
Peak: +1.73°C
World Population
8.1 billion
+67
million/year