Abstract Unlike Florida’s Atlantic Coast, the Gulf Coast of Florida has seen heightened tropical cyclone (TC) activity in recent decades with several destructive landfalls. Here, we attempt to understand this regional contrast using a suite of observations for the period 1979–2024. First, we demonstrate that while the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can explain ∼ ${\sim} $23% of the interannual variability in landfalls over the Gulf Coast, the variance explained by them for the Atlantic Coast is statistically insignificant. Next, we show that this striking difference may be attributed to the regional patterns of wind shear, steering flow and air‐sea thermodynamic state excited by those modes of variability. The differential control exerted by ENSO, AMO, and NAO on landfalling Florida TCs, in combination with decadal trends in those modes, is likely responsible for the observed increases in landfalls over Florida’s Gulf Coast.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: November 30, 2025 04:25 AM
Atmospheric CO₂
426.8 ppm
+18.1
ppm/year
Atmospheric CH₄
1927.61 ppb
+2.73
ppb/year
Global Temperature
+1.48 °C
Peak: +1.73°C
World Population
8.1 billion
+67
million/year