Abstract The Northwest Pacific anomalous anticyclone (NWPAC) links El Niño to East Asian summer climate, yet its response to global warming remains highly uncertain. Analyzing 48 CMIP5/6 models, this study identifies projected changes in Indo‐Pacific climatological circulation as key drivers of this uncertainty. Models with a stronger weakening of the Indo‐Pacific Walker circulation project deeper thermoclines in the southwest and shallower ones in the subtropical south Indian Ocean, along with a faster ENSO decay. These changes enhance Indian Ocean SST anomalies and strengthen the NWPAC through adjustments in thermocline–SST coupling and Indo‐Pacific air–sea interactions. In contrast, models with weaker circulation changes project reduced Indian Ocean SST anomaly warming and a weaker NWPAC. These findings highlight the Indo‐Pacific climatological wind changes, acting through thermocline–SST coupling and cross‐basin air‐sea interactions, play a critical role in driving intermodel uncertainty in projections of NWPAC and East Asian climate under global warming.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: November 30, 2025 04:25 AM
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426.8 ppm
+18.1
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