China dominates global coking production with a 70% proportion, making the decarbonization of this highly energy- and emission-intensive industry critical for resource and environmental benefits. Despite discussions of decarbonization potential at the regional level, plant-specific co-benefits and technologically driven pathways remain unclear. Here, we integrate detailed data from 329 individual Chinese coking plants—characterizing their location, capacity, technology, and age—with national carbon neutrality scenarios to develop optimized, multi-criteria retirement pathways. Plants mainly located in Shanxi are first phased out before 2030 in a business-as-usual scenario, while retirements are proportional across provinces in the low coke production scenario. Considerable co-benefits are observed, 53.4%–57.1% of water saving and emission mitigation toward 2060. Trade-offs exist due to ascending coal use if there is higher technical penetration of dry quenching. Our analysis quantifies the distinct contributions of demand reduction (driven by steel industry transformation) and structural efficiency improvements within the coking sector itself. These results provide the first granular, data-driven roadmap for managing China’s critical coking transition, offering crucial insights for maximizing environmental gains during industrial decarbonization globally.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: November 30, 2025 04:25 AM
Atmospheric CO₂
426.8 ppm
+18.1
ppm/year
Atmospheric CH₄
1927.61 ppb
+2.73
ppb/year
Global Temperature
+1.48 °C
Peak: +1.73°C
World Population
8.1 billion
+67
million/year