Globally, peatlands store twice as much carbon as forests. Conservation of these ecosystems is vital in preventing the return of massive amounts of carbon to the atmosphere. With climate boundaries of ecosystems shifting, choosing to restore wisely has never been more important. We set out to assess how climate boundaries of peatlands in Europe may shift with climate by (1) deriving relationships between peatland distributions and climate variables and (2) using these relationships to project peatland distributions into the future based on two climate change scenarios: one scenario in line with the Paris Agreement (SSP1-2.6) and a scenario predicting 3 °C warming by 2050 (SSP5-8.5). We estimate that 93% of European peat soils do not longer have functioning peatland ecosystems. The climate conditions for the remaining 7% of peatlands may remain best in Northern Scandinavia, the Western islands, and higher elevations within the European mainland. In contrast, climate suitability for peatlands will significantly decrease through most of Southern, Central, and Eastern Europe. Under 3 °C warming, 92% of all currently functional peatlands will face less suitable climate conditions by 2050. Moreover, the proportion of peatlands under unfavorable climatic conditions will almost triple from 6% to 15%. Our findings imply that conservation and restoration of peatlands in future climates will be most effective in areas with peatlands that are likely to remain closer to the center of their climate niche including parts of northern Scandinavia, Ireland, Scotland and at higher elevational ranges.

Read original article

Read original article