Abstract Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet is largest in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, due to basal melting by warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW). In this study we find that subsurface temperature variability near the ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea Embayment from a global ocean‐sea ice model is able to track observed temperature variability and satellite‐derived basal melt rates. Simulated ocean temperature variability is controlled by a two‐stage response to the regional winds. A weakening of the prevailing southeasterly winds initially redistributes heat by lifting the thermocline, bringing warm mCDW up from depth near the ice shelf front. This is followed by a lagged widespread warming across the continental shelf due to water mass property changes, driven by horizontal advection and vertical mixing. Our results suggest a limited role of internal ocean variability and meltwater feedbacks on the observed variability on interannual timescales.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: December 19, 2025 03:16 AM
Atmospheric CO₂
427.2 ppm
+17.7
ppm/year
Atmospheric CH₄
1930.95 ppb
+-3.5
ppb/year
Global Temperature
+1.48 °C
Peak: +1.73°C
World Population
8.1 billion
+67
million/year