Abstract Aerosol‐convection interactions modulate cloud microphysics, thermodynamics, and updraft intensity, contributing to climate‐scale aerosol‐radiative forcing. However, quantifying aerosol indirect effects in mixed‐phase deep convection remains challenging due to uncertainties in parameterized physics and initial conditions driving nonlinear evolution of convective processes. This study investigates the convective updraft sensitivity to random initial temperature perturbations using an idealized ensemble modeling framework informed by in situ thermodynamic and aerosol observations from the DOE TRACER field campaign. We analyze the impact of small‐scale initial perturbations on updraft velocity and supersaturation, and determine the ensemble size required to minimize stochastic internal variability. Results show that minor thermodynamic perturbations can produce updraft variability comparable to aerosol‐induced changes reported in prior work. An ensemble of 10 members sufficiently reduces variability, enabling robust investigation of aerosol‐related updraft invigoration and informing the design of future ensemble‐based aerosol‐convection interaction studies in environments with significant spatiotemporal mesoscale thermodynamic and aerosol heterogeneity.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: December 29, 2025 02:12 PM
Atmospheric CO₂
427.9 ppm
+18.1
ppm/year
Atmospheric CH₄
1930.95 ppb
+-3.5
ppb/year
Global Temperature
+1.48 °C
Peak: +1.73°C
World Population
8.1 billion
+67
million/year