Flood damage repairs to the built environment generate substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yet these indirect climate impacts are rarely integrated into flood consequence assessments. In this study, we present a fragility-based modeling framework to estimate material replacement needs for building components damaged at specific flood depths. We develop fragility curves for each building component using a triangular cumulative distribution derived from expert judgment due to the lack of empirical data on flood losses, especially at the component level. By combining these estimates with life cycle GHG emissions for each component in a Monte Carlo simulation, we derive probabilistic, emissions-based damage curves for single-family residential structures which comprehensively account for uncertainty in the estimates. We then applied these damage curves to estimate the GHG emissions caused by a 100-year flood in two testbed regions in the Mississippi River Valley. Our results show that including the social costs of GHG emissions can increase the valuation of total flood damages by over 6%. Our results also show that flood impact estimates are highly uncertain our model can be used by planners in cost-benefit analyses of flood risk management projects to show that such projects are more economically efficient than current methods would report.

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