Abstract Organic‐rich mangrove soils release CH4, partially offsetting the climate benefits of high organic carbon sequestration. However, the local and global drivers and variability of mangrove CH4 emissions remain poorly understood. Here, we quantify water‐atmosphere CH4 emissions over hourly, daily, and weekly time scales in an Australian mangrove ecosystem. We then combine our new observations with earlier data sets to link temperature and mangrove CH4 emissions on the global scale. The water‐atmosphere CH4 emissions were partially controlled by temperature on both local and global scales. One degree warming increased mangrove water‐atmosphere CH4 emissions by ∼23% locally and ∼13% globally. Globally scaled water‐atmosphere CH4 emissions (0.07–0.10 Tg C yr−1) currently offset 6%–8% of mangrove carbon burial. CH4 emissions are predicted to increase by 10%–33% by 2100 under global warming scenarios and tropicalization. Therefore, mangrove CH4 emissions should be considered in blue carbon assessments in the context of global warming.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: January 04, 2026 08:15 AM
Atmospheric CO₂
428.4 ppm
+17.5
ppm/year
Atmospheric CH₄
1930.95 ppb
+-3.5
ppb/year
Global Temperature
+1.48 °C
Peak: +1.73°C
World Population
8.1 billion
+67
million/year