The Antarctic Ice Sheet is a critical driver of global sea level rise, yet future projections of Antarctic precipitation remain highly uncertain, posing challenges to modeling ice sheet changes. This study examines uncertainties in Antarctic precipitation projections using simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and investigates their underlying sources. We find that uncertainties in precipitation projections are substantially larger than those for surface temperature. Integrated precipitation uncertainties are strongly linked to uncertainties in both global and Antarctic surface temperatures, while atmospheric circulation—particularly the Pacific South American modes—plays a critical role in regional precipitation patterns of precipitation uncertainties. Further analysis reveals that tropical sea surface temperatures contribute to uncertainties in Antarctic precipitation patterns through atmospheric teleconnections. These findings highlight the need to improve polar processes in climate models to reduce uncertainties in Antarctic precipitation projections and better predict ice sheet contributions to sea level rise.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: January 02, 2026 02:11 PM
Atmospheric COâ‚‚
427.9 ppm
+18.1
ppm/year
Atmospheric CHâ‚„
1930.95 ppb
+-3.5
ppb/year
Global Temperature
+1.48 °C
Peak: +1.73°C
World Population
8.1 billion
+67
million/year