Abstract We estimate the fault geometry and coseismic slip of the 2025 Myanmar earthquake using multi‐source satellite observations, revealing a nine‐segment rupture structure that transitions from eastward‐dipping in the north to westward‐dipping in the south, with peak slip of ∼6 m and negligible shallow slip deficit. We model Coulomb pre‐stress evolution along the Sagaing Fault from 1839 to 2025, incorporating coseismic stress transfer from 10 M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes and interseismic tectonic loading, to investigate their influences on the 2025 rupture. Results show that the 1839 Ava earthquake could have cast a long‐lasting pre‐stress shadow at both ends of the 2025 rupture, provided it ruptured the same seismogenic fault. Dynamic triggering effects, fault geometry complexity, and stress localization may explain rupture within these shadow zones. Further southward rupture propagation of the 2025 rupture into the Bago segment is likely inhibited by a combination of geometric and pre‐stress barriers, preventing a larger rupture.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: February 24, 2026 10:22 PM
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