Abstract Quantifying how and where climate change will alter meteorological drought properties is a priority to inform adaptation policies. Here we use the standardized precipitation index to portray future changes in the climatological properties of moderate drought events projected by the latest generation of Earth system models. Beyond the assessment of their mean frequency and intensity, other metrics are explored including length of drought intervals, drought duration, starting date and severity. Two extended 6âmonth seasons are distinguished starting in October and April, respectively. Consistent changes in drought properties are projected across timescales and seasons. Regional âdry spotsâ are identified, such as northern South America and the Caribbean Islands, where the median model response shows the largest increase in drought severity, mostly as a result of prolonged duration. Yet, there are many regions where the interâmodel spread remains substantial and cannot be reduced by the application of global and regional observational constraints.
Observations from the Little Bunker
Last updated: February 24, 2026 10:22 PM
Atmospheric COâ
429.9 ppm
+17.3
ppm/year
Atmospheric CHâ
1946.47 ppb
+6.49
ppb/year
Global Temperature
+1.48 °C
Peak: +1.73°C
World Population
8.1 billion
+67
million/year