Country: Malawi Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to persist through March in areas of the southern and central regions, where ongoing food assistance is mitigating food consumption gaps. The outcomes are driven by below-average purchasing power and restricted market food access for poor households. In the remaining southern areas and central Karonga, households are likely facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, maintaining minimally adequate food consumption but unable to afford non-food expenditures without engaging in stress-coping strategies. Elsewhere in the central and northern regions, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to continue, supported by typical access to income from livelihood activities. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist in southern areas from April/May through September, while households are accessing food from their own production; however, they have only moderately recovered from consecutive years of multiple shocks, including poor rainfall and flooding. Most of the rest of the country is expected to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) during the harvesting and post-harvest periods. Food access is expected to improve countrywide starting in April with the 2026 harvest, as the harvest increases access to own-produced foods, income from crop sales, and agricultural labor. Malawi received above-average rainfall across most of the country during the October 2025 to March 2026 rainy season. However, localized dry spells lasting between three to four weeks between January and February 2026in the south — particularly along the Southern Lakeshore and in the Lower Shire Livelihood Zones — have led to average cumulative rainfall. Associated with the favorable rainfall, maize is generally in good condition. With crops in the cobbing to maturity stages over the northern half of the country, while at the maturity to drying stage over southern areas, with an anticipated average harvest at the national level. Farmers in the southern half have already started accessing and consuming maize from the green harvest. In mid‑March 2026, heavy rainfall triggered flash flooding in parts of the central and southern regions, resulting in some damage to infrastructure and crops. Among the affected districts in central Malawi are Salima, Mchinji, and Nkhotakota, while in southern Malawi, the districts include Mangochi, Machinga, Zomba, Blantyre, Chikwawa, Nsanje, Mwanza, Phalombe, and Mulanje. According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent, approximately 311,000 people experienced losses to crops or income-earning activities. Over 6,100 individuals were displaced and are currently sheltered in 84 temporary camps, where the Department of Disaster Management Affairs is assisting. According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), annual headline inflation in February was stable at 24 percent compared to the previous month. Food inflation remained constant at 21 percent between January and February 2026, reflecting relatively stable food prices, while non-food inflation also remained unchanged at 30 percent during the same period, indicating price stability and limited price movements in non-food items and services. Despite the temporary stability in inflation, the persistent high food prices are expected to constrain household purchasing power, limiting their ability to meet their nonfood needs. Maize prices typically rise between January and February; however, between January and February 2026, prices remained stable, as traders released food stocks and expectations of the upcoming main harvest improved the market supply. On average, national maize prices were 1,091 MWK/kilogram (kg) across the 27 markets monitored by the International Food Policy Research Institute. Despite overall price stability, approximately 30 percent of the monitoredmarkets recorded price increases of 5-13 percent, consistent with typical seasonal trends. Maize prices at Mitundu, the national reference market, marginally increased from MWK 1,008/kg in January to MWK 1,084/kg in February, representing an 8 percent increase. Although February 2026 prices were 30 percent lower than in February 2025, they remained 65 percent above the five-year average, continuing to constrain household access to food through market purchases. The conflict in the Middle East is expected to have a modest indirect impact on Malawi, primarily through rising global energy and fertilizer prices, which will likely increase food transportation costs and raise production expenses for the next agricultural season. Malawi has experienced persistent fuel shortages in recent years, which have been compounded by weak infrastructure and high transport costs. Fuel shortages are expected to worsen as the conflict in the Middle East continues, with fuel prices likely to rise in the coming weeks. If the conflict persists, fertilizer imports for the 2026/27 agricultural season, beginning in August 2026, are likely to be disrupted, potentially reducing fertilizer use and agricultural labor opportunities for poor households within the projection period. Humanitarian food assistance is ongoing in several southern districts, including Neno, Mwanza, Phalombe, Mulanje, Thyolo, Chikwawa, Nsanje, and Blantyre, as well as in parts of central Malawi, including Salima. Food assistance is reaching an estimated 25-45 percent of the population in targeted districts, covering approximately 25-50 percent of their monthly food needs. Beneficiary households receive either 50 kg of maize or 90,000 MWK per month.

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