Abstract We present a novel extreme event attribution approach, isolating dynamical from other contributions to changing extreme event probability. Event‐specific, multivariate circulation imprints are linked to impact‐relevant hazard indices in a flexible framework which we demonstrate for three recent high‐impact extreme events: the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, the 2024 Spanish floods and Storm Ciarán in 2023. Dynamical contributions are identified as occurrence changes in extreme‐favoring imprints and are disaggregated from thermodynamic and other contributions which alter the conversion of dynamical forcing into surface extremes. We find a clear contribution of climate change to events like the Los Angeles wildfires, and to a decline in events like Storm Ciarán, with no apparent role in events similar to the Spanish floods. These conclusions bear similarities and differences to previous attributions of these events, with the circulation imprint approach identifying an increased role for dynamical changes than previous approaches.
Last updated: April 10, 2026 12:42 PM
CO₂
431.7ppm
+2.5
/ year
CH₄
1945.85ppb
+8.44
/ year
Temp
+1.48°C
Peak +1.73°C
Population
8.1B
+67M
/ year