Country: Guatemala Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Please refer to the attached file. Executive Summary The humanitarian community is scaling up anticipatory action (AA), enabling proactive mobilisation of assistance to get ahead of predictable climate-related shocks and disease outbreaks through robust forecasting (triggers), pre-agreed activities, and pre-arranged funding. This approach has proven effective, dignified, cost-efficient, and protective of development gains. This document presents the anticipatory action framework for drought in Guatemala. It entails a coordinated package of assistance planned to be delivered to people at risk of drought in the prioritized departments of Chiquimula, Zacapa, Jalapa and El Progreso. The framework was developed through a participatory process with humanitarian partners that are part of the Anticipatory Action advisory group, with technical support from OCHA and under the overall leadership of the Resident Coordinator (RC). The financing This framework pre‑arranges US $4 million in pooled‑fund financing in 2026-2027 from the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to protect up to 60,000 people in the country through timely, targeted multi-sectoral assistance. The pre-arranged CERF funding is dedicated specifically for this framework and does neither guarantee nor preclude Guatemala’ access to CERF rapid response funding for unforeseen severe humanitarian emergencies that may occur in the country during the validity period, whether related to droughts or other crises. The participating agencies have made a remarkable effort to mobilize their own resources and link the framework with initiatives funded by other donors to cover the costs associated to preparedness strategies. The trigger Triggers are based on seasonal precipitation forecasts obtained from the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF SEAS5). The forecasts are aggregated at sub-national level (Departments of Chiquimula, Jalapa, El Progreso and Zacapa). The seasonal thresholds are set individually per lead time to approximate a combined annual return period of 1 in 3 years (1 in 2.92) for the activation of the framework in either season. • ‘Window A’ activities are triggered based on individual thresholds defined for each monitoring moment/lead time, derived from empirical return period calculations using historical ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts. These individual thresholds combine to produce an overall seasonal activation return period of approximately 1 in 3.5 years (see individual thresholds in table 3). •’Window B’ activities are triggered based on individual thresholds defined for each monitoring moment/lead time, derived from empirical return period calculations using historical ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts. These individual thresholds combine to produce an overall seasonal activation return period of approximately 1 in 4.4 years (see individual thresholds in table 3).

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