Countries: Guatemala, Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Please refer to the attached Infographic. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern characterised by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO‑neutral conditions are present and are expected to continue through April–June 2026 (80 per cent chance), but forecasts indicate that El Niño is likely to emerge from May–July 2026 (61 per cent chance) and persist through at least the end of the year. If El Niño develops, humanitarian risks may increase across parts of the region. This year’s risks are amplified by existing drought conditions as well as high food and fuel prices, driven by global shocks and climate stress. HUMANITARIAN RISKS TO WATCH HEAT, DROUGHT, FIRES Hotter and drier conditions raise the risk of heat stress, agricultural drought, and wildfires. FLOODING & LANDSLIDES Heavy rainfall in some areas increases the risk of floods, infrastructure damage, and displacement. FOOD INSECURITY Drought, heat, and flooding may reduce crop yields and incomes, increasing food insecurity. HEALTH RISKS Changes in rainfall and heat may increase water‑ and vector‑borne diseases and heat‑related illnesses. KEY AREAS OF CONCERN CENTRAL AMERICA DRY CORRIDOR Humanitarian partners have already activated drought anticipatory actions in the Central America Dry Corridor, with funding released in early 2026 due to low rainfall forecasts, high temperatures, and water stress threatening subsistence farming livelihoods in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. El Niño conditions could intensify these impacts later in the year. THE CARIBBEAN Regional climate centres warn that a developing El Niño could bring hotter and drier conditions across the Caribbean, slowing water resource recovery and increasing risks to food security, health, and energy systems in small island states. PACIFIC COAST OF ECUADOR AND PERU El Niño often increases the likelihood of intense rainfall, flooding, and landslides. These events can damage infrastructure, disrupt livelihoods such as agriculture and fishing, and force the displacement of communities. AMAZON BASIN, NORTHERN BRAZIL & PANTANAL Reduced rainfall combined with high temperatures increases the risk of drought, wildfires, and low river levels. These impacts can affect river transport and access to services and food, particularly among indigenous and riverine communities. SOUTHERN CONE (SOUTHERN BRAZIL, URUGUAY, PARAGUAY, NORTHEASTERN ARGENTINA El Niño tends to bring above‑average rainfall, raising the risk of flooding, saturated soils, crop damage, and infrastructure disruption, with potential impacts on food production and displacement. Southern Brazil is highly vulnerable to intense rainfall events; in February 2026, extreme rainfall triggered severe floods and landslides in southeastern Brazil, killing dozens of people and displacing thousands.