Country: Guatemala Source: World Food Programme Please refer to the attached file. SITUATION OVERVIEW • Food insecurity remains a critical concern in 2026. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) projections for February–April 2026 indicate that up to 3 million people in Guatemala —approximately 16 percent of the population— are expected to face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including nearly 250,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). • These acute needs coincide with the onset of the May–August lean season, a period during which household food reserves are typically depleted, seasonal employment opportunities decline, and vulnerable families become increasingly reliant on markets to meet their basic food needs. • The food security outlook is further compounded by elevated climate risks. Official forecasts indicate a probability exceeding 80 percent that Guatemala will transition to El Niño conditions from May 2026 onwards, with projections pointing to a pronounced dry spell and a significant, protracted water deficit. • The Ministry of Agriculture has warned that 2026 could resemble the conditions observed in 2014, when intensified canícula peaks, crop losses, and deteriorating food security and nutrition outcomes were recorded. This context underscores the urgency of early action to protect livelihoods, safeguard food consumption, and prevent further deterioration in nutrition outcomes.