Some are already calling it a ‘Super El Niño’. But what exactly is El Niño and what does it have to do with the fossil fuels driving the climate crisis? Here’s everything you need to know. What is El Niño? Every two to seven years, the surface waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warm significantly above their normal temperature, and when they do, it throws the entire planet’s weather off balance. This phenomenon is called El Niño. The science Normally, trade winds in the Pacific act like a giant fan blowing across the tropics, pushing warm surface water westward toward Australia and Indonesia — bringing rainfall, healthy monsoons, and productive oceans. Meanwhile, cold, nutrient-rich water rises to the surface in the east, keeping fisheries alive and climates stable along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador in South America. But every few years those trade winds weaken, warm water stops being pushed west, and the eastern Pacific heats up. And when it happens, that balance collapses: Australia and Indonesia face drought, South America faces floods, and weather systems that billions of people depend on are thrown into disarray across the entire planet. El Niño develops through the warming of the surface water in the Pacific. (Getty Images) The name El Niño, Spanish for ‘the boy child’, refers to the baby Jesus. It was originally coined by South American fishermen who noticed a warm ocean current off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru around Christmas time as far back as the 1600s. El Niño is one phase of a larger natural climate cycle called ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). Its counterpart, La Niña (meaning ‘girl child’), is the opposite: a cooling of the same Pacific waters, with strengthened trade winds. Together, El Niño and La Niña swing global weather patterns like a pendulum. El Niño brings drought to South and Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa, while delivering heavier rainfall to parts of South America. And La Niña brings the reverse of many of those patterns. Neither event is a disaster by itself, rather they have been part of Earth’s natural climate rhythm for thousands of years. The problems start when they become extreme, especially when the world they arrive in is already stressed. What’s happening right now? This year, something different is happening. The Pacific has just swung out of a La Niña cooling phase, and El Niño is developing unusually fast. The question is just how big it gets. For an El Niño to be officially declared, ocean temperatures only need to rise 0.5°C above average. But the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, now puts an 82% chance of El Niño developing by July 2026, and this one is already looking far more serious than its predecessors. A ‘Super El Niño’ is when temperatures surge 2°C or more above normal. That threshold has only been crossed a handful of times in recorded history — in 1982, 1997, and 2015. Each time, it triggered droughts, floods, and record temperatures across multiple continents. But the El Niño in 1876-78 is considered one of the strongest on record, and led to a global famine that killed around 50 million people across India, China, Brazil, and southern Africa. That was about 1 in every 28 people alive at the time. It remains the benchmark for worst-case El Niño events in human history. Right now, forecasts are warning that this El Niño could push ocean temperatures 2°C or even 3°C above normal by the end of 2026. Three of the world’s top forecasting agencies project El Niño 2026 will likely match, or surpass, the 1878 El Niño in ocean temperature. And unlike 1877, this one is arriving in a world that is already hotter, with more people to feed and less room for error. Many scientists are already predicting 2027 will be the warmest year ever recorded. Impacts The human stakes are quite high, and they look different depending on where you live. Africa faces some of the worst exposure: drought in the Sahel and southern Africa threatens staple crops like maize, while East Africa faces major flooding. The last major El Niño left over 30 million people needing humanitarian assistance in southern Africa alone. In Asia, a weaker monsoon puts India’s rice, wheat, and cotton harvests at risk, while drought conditions threaten crops across Southeast Asia and Australia. In Latin America, Central America faces prolonged drought and food insecurity, while Peru, Ecuador, and southern Brazil face the opposite: intense rainfall and flooding. The crops most people depend on — maize, rice, and wheat — all tend to fall globally during strong El Niño years. In wealthy countries, that means higher food prices. In others, it means hunger. And this is all hitting a world already under strain — fertilizer shortages, energy price spikes, and sweeping cuts to foreign aid have stripped away the buffers that once helped vulnerable communities absorb these shocks. Why fossil fuels make El Nino impacts so much worse Here’s the critical point that often gets lost in the headlines: El Niño itself is not caused by climate change. But the climate crisis, driven by burning fossil fuels, is making its effects dramatically worse. Think of it this way. El Niño temporarily releases enormous amounts of heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere. That has always caused disruption. But today, that heat is being released into a world already running hotter than it has in human history. So when El Niño pulses on top of that elevated baseline, the consequences are more severe than any comparable event from decades past. ‘Global warming is giving more energy to the whole system to be unearthed by these El Niño events when they occur.’ – Dr Daniel Swain, climate scientist In other words, global heating acts as a fuel that amplifies El Niño’s natural force — and that extra energy has real consequences: heavier downpours and more destructive storms, faster-spreading wildfires as higher temperatures dry out vegetation, more severe droughts in regions already vulnerable during El Niño years, and record-breaking temperatures. Some research also suggests that warming oceans may be making individual El Niño events stronger, though scientists are still working to fully understand that link. What is clear is that the baseline the world is dealing with has already shifted. Fifty years ago, a strong El Niño caused serious damage. Today, that same event would be far more destructive because the climate crisis has already raised the stakes. Researchers also warn of a vicious cycle: strong El Niño events hit hydropower-dependent regions with droughts, forcing them to burn more coal and gas for electricity — which in turn pumps more carbon into the atmosphere and drives further heating. El Niño and fossil fuels then go on to reinforce one another’s worst effects. What this means for the climate fight A Super El Niño is not a reason to panic, but more so a reason to act. These events come and go. What doesn’t go away is the underlying warming driven by fossil fuels. Every fraction of a degree that burning coal, oil, and gas adds to the global baseline makes the next El Niño more destructive. Some climate models now show a meaningful chance that 2026 or 2027 could see global monthly temperatures briefly exceed 2.0°C above preindustrial levels for the first time in recorded history. They are the temperatures at which weather systems break down, crops fail, and the precarity built up by decades of climate inaction becomes catastrophic. We know exactly what to do. The technology exists. The knowledge exists. The path forward is a rapid, just phase-out of fossil fuels, and a shift to renewable energy that doesn’t leave vulnerable communities behind. El Niño will pass. The climate crisis won’t, unless we end the era of fossil fuels. Join 350’s Great Power Shift campaign to phase out fossil fuels, usher in renewables and hold the polluters accountable. The post El Niño 2026: what’s happening? appeared first on 350.