Nature Climate Change, Published online: 08 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02607-yThe EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) was introduced to curb carbon leakage, but its impact is debated. Using export and emissions data from Indian steel plants, researchers show early evidence that the CBAM could penalize high-emission producers, rather than act as a blanket trade barrier.