Country: Afghanistan Sources: Famine Early Warning System Network, Government of the United States of America, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, University of California, US Geological Survey Please refer to the attached file. Introduction We are pleased to present the final update of the 2025–2026 agroclimatic monitoring activities in Afghanistan, conducted as part of FEWS NET’s ongoing monitoring efforts. We appreciate your continued engagement and support throughout this reporting cycle. The report uses satellite-based rainfall data, CHIRPS v3, together with FEWS NET analytical tools to support evidencebased decision-making. One of these tools is the Seasonal Monitoring and Probability Generator (SMPG), which provides localized, polygon-level insights into the evolution of the rainfall season. Users can interactively access plots by selecting any polygon. According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, a weak La NiΓ±a event ended in early 2026, and ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present. Based on the mid-May NOAA CPC ENSO outlook, there is more than a 90 percent probability of El NiΓ±o development in June-July-August (JJA) with conditions likely to persist through December 2026 to February 2027 (96 percent chance). Under these conditions, a set of ENSO-neutral analog years was selected to support comparative analysis. These include: 1992–1993, 1993–1994, 1994–1995, 1995–1996, 1997–1998, 1999–2000, 2000–2001, 2007–2008, 2008–2009, 2009–2010, 2011–2012, 2012–2013, 2014–2015, 2016–2017, 2017–2018, 2018–2019, 2020–2021, 2021–2022, 2022–2023, 2023–2024, and 2024–2025. As is our usual practice, reporting will pause starting in June and will resume in October with the onset of the 2026/27 wet season.

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