Globally, climate action is falling short — and following through on promises has never mattered more.Last year, more than 137 countries submitted their new national climate commitments (formally called nationally determined contributions or NDCs) setting plans to cut harmful climate emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. However, these efforts still leave the world dramatically short, closing less than 6% of what’s needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), to prevent the world from experiencing the most dangerous consequences of climate change.That gap is troubling enough, but there is another more urgent question: Are countries delivering on their earlier commitments which set 2030 targets as part of their initial NDCs submitted in 2020-2021? If major economies can’t show credible follow-through on those pledges, how can we be confident these new commitments — which aim to reduce emissions by 2035 — be met?To answer this question, WRI analyzed progress G20 countries are making toward their mitigation targets using the biennial transparency reports (BTR) that countries are required to submit as part of their commitment to the Paris Agreement. As major economies spanning across developed and developing countries, the G20 is responsible for more than three-fourths of annual global emissions — meaning their progress will largely influence whether the world meets its climate goals. Our analysis of 14 of the G20 members shows a sobering picture.If recent trends continue, only five countries — Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Turkey — will trend positively toward meeting their 2030 climate targets. Australia is the only nation in this group currently cutting emissions from levels above its target, while the others need only to limit future growth. Conversely, nine G20 members, including the United States, European Union and the United Kingdom, must accelerate their reduction rates from recent trends — in some cases more than doubling them — to bridge the gap between current progress and their 2030 commitments. About This AnalysisAs part of the Paris Agreement, 132 countries have submitted biennial transparency reports (BTR) to the UN. This analysis focuses on 13 countries and the European Union, that are members of the G20 and have submitted their first BTRs, which include self-reported emissions data through 2022. For these countries, we also evaluated historical data, drawing from each country’s GHG inventory, to show trends over time and added a simple analysis of what emissions cuts or limitations are needed to meet each country’s target. Comparing recent trends with these required pathways shows the extent to which increases in effort are required to meet their targets. (Additional methodology is provided at the end of this article.) The analysis excludes G20 members China, India and Saudi Arabia. These countries have different types of 2030 NDC targets, including emissions peaking, emissions intensity and non-GHG targets, which are not conducive to the methodology employed in this article. We will be able to include these three countries once their emissions level in the target year can be more accurately calculated from their NDC or BTR. The BTRs for these respective countries provide more detail on how they are progressing towards their 2030 targets.Which Countries Are Trending Toward Their NDC Target?Progress for G20 members varies. Some countries need substantial decreases in their emissions, while others must limit and manage expected increases to achieve their 2030 targets.For a number of countries, recent trendlines point positively toward achieving NDC targets. This includes Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Turkey, which are collectively responsible for approximately 9% of total global emissions. Among these countries, only Australia has 2022 NDC emissions above its target level, which means the country must continue decreasing its emissions at its recent pace through 2030 to achieve its target.Russia, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey must focus on limiting any increases in emissions. Russia needs to limit emissions reductions below an annualized 10%, Indonesia and Turkey must limit emissions increases below about 4% and South Africa must limit increases below 1%. Which Countries Need to Accelerate Efforts?Nine of the G20 members we analyzed (collectively accounting for 30% of total global emissions) need to increase their emissions reduction efforts to achieve their 2030 NDC targets. For Argentina and Brazil, recent trends suggest emissions increases, but to achieve their targets, they need to decrease emissions. For Argentina, emissions only need to decrease from 2022 to 2030 by an annualized rate of 1%. For Brazil, annualized reductions of nearly 6.5% will be required. However, Brazil’s BTR indicates that it may be making some initial progress in accelerating emissions reductions as a result of deforestation in the Amazon, which fell significantly between 2022 and 2023.The remaining G20 members we analyzed all must accelerate emissions reductions, compared to recent trends. The scale of this acceleration varies by country. For example, the United Kingdom must scale its emissions reductions from annualized rate of 3.2% over the recent period to 5.4% between 2022 and 2030. Canada must also scale its reductions rate to a similar level of 5.5% from 2022 to 2030 to achieve its NDC target, but its recent rate of reductions has been much slower at 1.3%. For others, like Mexico, the EU and Japan, current emissions reduction rates must double from recent trends to achieve their targets. What Progress is Being Made by Remaining G20 Members?Tracking progress toward international climate pledges for China, India and Saudi Arabia must be assessed differently because their NDCs use different approaches than other G20 members. Still, the data and information included in their BTRs provides a window into their progress.China reports that some NDC targets have already been achieved on renewable energy and forests, by noting the installation of 1,600 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar capacity by 2024, beyond its 2030 NDC target of 1,200 GW, and forest stock volume has already grown by 6.5 billion cubic meters by 2021, meeting its 6 billion goal for 2030 ahead of schedule.Carbon emissions from fuel combustion, industrial processes and product use rose nearly 4% from 2020 to 2021; China has committed for these to peak before 2030. China also has a target to reduce carbon intensity by 65% below 2005 levels by 2030 and reports that carbon intensity in 2021 was 51% below 2005 levels. Non-fossil fuels reached 18% of primary energy consumption in 2023; the NDC target is for non-fossil fuels to reach ‘around 25%.’ A hiker walks along the ancient Shu Road in China’s Sichuan Province. China reports it has met its goal to grow forest stock ahead of its 2030 NDC goal. For India, by 2022, the country had reduced emissions intensity per unit of GDP by 37% against its 2005 baseline, toward its 2030 goal of 45% reductions. In 2022, non-fossil sources reached nearly 43% of cumulative installed power capacity, compared to the 50% target by 2030. And India has already added 2.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in additional carbon sink, approaching its 2030 target range of 2.5 billion to 3 billion tons CO2e.Saudi Arabia’s BTR omits structured reporting on progress toward achieving its NDC, making it difficult to evaluate progress toward its stated goal of reducing or avoiding 278 million tons of CO2e annually by 2030.The next round of BTRs, due at the end of this year, will provide even more data and information on NDC progress. If increased efforts are not reported in these coming BTRs, trajectories to reduce emissions to NDC target levels will become much steeper.What Are Countries Reporting About Their Future Emissions?Countries are required in their BTRs to submit emissions projections under a business-as-usual scenario from 2025 through 2040, showing where emissions are headed under current policies. This allows for comparison of countries’ current projections with the reductions that are needed to achieve their NDC targets. Only 14 G20 members submitted 2030 projections and just eight countries offered 2035 projections.For seven nations, these reports showed that countries project that their 2030 emissions may be higher than their 2030 NDC emissions targets. Three countries — the United Kingdom, South Korea and Canada — report projections that are at least 25% higher than their NDC target.While projections are just a snapshot in time view of future scenarios and do not necessarily reflect future emissions or policy trajectories, they might offer insights into a country’s implementation gap, highlighting the need to strengthen domestic action and accelerate execution of existing policies to meet their current targets.However, many G20 countries offered little explanation of the methodology behind estimating these figures making it difficult to examine and determine the credibility of their climate pledges: If nations do not have the necessary policies in place to meet their near-term goals, it raises doubts about their capacity to achieve more ambitious future commitments.What Actions are Countries Taking to Deliver on Their NDCs?In their BTRs, countries are obliged to report and describe policies and measures that support the implementation and achievement of their NDC, while noting whether they’ve been planned, adopted or implemented. This reporting provides a concrete, albeit limited, view into the specific efforts that countries are pursuing.Among the number of policies reported by G20 members there is wide variation. Some countries described just a handful of policies, while others detailed hundreds. For example, Canada reported 448 policies, Indonesia listed 80 and Brazil mentions just seven of the most impactful policies and notes that these do not represent the entirety of its climate policies. Argentina, Russia and Saudi Arabia did not report any policies. The total number reported certainly cannot — and should not be read to — represent the entirety of a country’s efforts to address their NDCs; rather, it reflects the diversity in approaches to reporting policies and measures in BTRs. Examining the individual policies reported, however, can help us understand the efforts underway and assess their impact.G20 members labeled 88% of reported policies and measures as ‘implemented.’ This high level of implementation does not indicate that policies have been put into place to achieve NDCs, but rather likely represents a selection bias as countries may be more likely to report on policies that are underway as opposed to those planned, which may be more uncertain. Other assessments such as the UNEP Emissions Gap Report have found an approximate GtCO2e gap — equivalent to just less than the U.S.’s annual emissions — between global emissions projected under current policies and global emissions expected with NDC implementation.Countries are also required, to the extent possible, to provide estimates of the expected and achieved emissions reductions from each of their policies in their BTRs, which would allow for more granular analysis of policy effectiveness. However, countries have largely been inconsistent with their reporting, with no country providing estimates for each of their policies. Fourteen G20 members reported estimates for at least some of their policies; Mexico and Indonesia were the standouts, estimating emissions reductions for at least 87% of their policies.Is the G20 Making Progress to Help Reduce Global Emissions?These first BTRs show that for most G20 members, more work is needed to limit emissions, meet their targets and raise further ambition. 2030 is quickly approaching, and the longer action is delayed, the steeper and more costly the path toward achieving each country’s target becomes.The next round of BTRs, due this December, could help show whether countries are following through on their commitments. BTRs do not just represent a reporting deadline, they let the world know whether commitments are being kept. With greater scrutiny of what countries report, and greater pressure to act on what the data shows, December’s BTRs can be a turning point. The question is whether governments will treat it as one.Additional Methodological and Data Notes Argentina: Argentina’s common tabular format (CTF) table 4 provides NDC emissions data for 2021 and 2022 and provides the NDC emissions target value for 2030. Due to methodological differences between Argentina’s national inventory report and NDC accounting (the NDC is accounted for using different global warming potential values than in the national inventory report), historical data prior to 2021 within the scope of the NDC was not available. Data since 2018 is presented to illustrate the five-year recent period, upon which recent trends are calculated. The recent trends calculations draw from Argentina’s GHG inventory in common reporting tables (CRT) table 10s6 (total with LULUCF), with the assumption that these trends may apply similarly notwithstanding the methodological differences noted. Australia: Australia’s CTF table 4.2 provides NDC emissions data for 2021 and 2022 and provides the NDC emissions target value for 2030. Because Australia uses data from its national GHG inventory for tracking progress, data from the inventory can be used to present time series data outside of the NDC implementation period. Data from 2005 to 2020 is drawn from Australia’s CTF table 6. Recent trends are calculated based on the recent five-year period from 2018 to 2022.Brazil: Brazil’s CTF table 4.2 provides NDC emissions data for 2020 to 2022 and provides the NDC emissions target value for 2030. Because Brazil uses data from its national GHG inventory for tracking progress, data from the inventory can be used to present time series data outside of the NDC implementation period. Data from 2005 to 2020 is drawn from Brazil’s CTF table 6. Data since 2005 is presented because 2005 is the NDC’s base year. Recent trends are calculated based on the recent 10-year period from 2013 to 2022, given substantial variability in emissions, especially LULUCF-related.Canada: Canada’s CTF table 4 provides NDC emissions data for 2005, 2021 and 2022, and provides the NDC emissions target value for 2030. To track progress, Canada uses data from its national GHG inventory (without LULUCF) and supplements with separate data on the LULUCF accounting contribution. For data outside of the NDC implementation period from 2006 to 2020, data is drawn from Canada’s CTF table 6 (Total, without LULUCF) and from Environment and Climate Change Canada Data Catalogue, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections, 2024 projections, LULUCF Historical Accounting Contribution. Recent trends are calculated based on the recent five-year period from 2018 to 2022.European Union: The European Union’s CTF table 4 provides NDC emissions data for base year 1990, for NDC implementation years 2021 and 2022, and provides the NDC emissions target value for 2030. The EU’s NDC scope varies from that of its GHG inventory. The NDC includes emissions from international aviation and navigation, while these categories are not included in GHG inventories submitted to the UNFCCC. To track its NDC, the EU supplements emissions estimates from its GHG inventory with estimates for international aviation and navigation based on estimates from the Joint Research Centre’s Integrated Database of the European Energy System (JRC-IDEES), which is published online. We were unable to exactly match the data published with EU BTR Table A-1, in part because the timing of the BTR’s finalization and the JRC-IDEES update meant that the BTR relied on earlier data from JRC-IDEES. We were thus unable to depict emissions within the EU’s NDC scope for the full time series but draw from the EU’s GHG inventory data in CTF table 6 (total with LULUCF). Recent trends are calculated based on the recent five-year period from 2018 to 2022, drawing from the GHG inventory data, with the assumption that these trends may apply similarly notwithstanding the differences in NDC scope.Indonesia: Table 2.13 of Indonesia’s BTR includes NDC emissions data from 2010-2022 and baseline scenario reference points for the same period. CTF table 4 provides the NDC emissions target value for 2030. Indonesia BTR table 2-10 ‘Description of the Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution’ notes the 2030 scenario value. To illustrate the baseline between 2022 and 2030, a linear line is calculated between the baseline values for 2022 and 2030. Recent trends are calculated based on the recent five-year period from 2018 to 2022.Japan: Japan’s CTF table 4 provides NDC emissions data for 2013, 2021 and 2022, and provides the NDC emissions target value for 2030. To track progress, Japan uses data from its national GHG inventory (without LULUCF, with indirect) and supplements with separate data on the LULUCF accounting contribution. For data outside of the NDC implementation period from 2013 to 2020, data is drawn from Japan’s CTF table 6 (Total, without LULUCF, with indirect) and from Japan’s 2024 National Inventory Document, Table A 9-3. Recent trends are calculated based on the recent five-year period from 2018 to 2022.Mexico: Mexico’s CTF table 4 provides NDC emissions data for 2021 and 2022 and provides the NDC emissions target value for 2030 along with the baseline scenario reference point for 2030. Table 2.5 of Mexico’s BTR further includes both NDC emissions values and baseline scenario values for 2012 to2022. Data since 2012 draws on the historical data provided in BTR Table 2.5. Recent trends are calculated based on the recent five-year period from 2018 to 2022.South Korea: South Korea’s CTF table 4 provides NDC emissions data for 2021 and 2022, and provides the 2018 reference point value. It also notes the target level is a 40% reduction from the 2018 reference point. The 2030 NDC target value is then calculated as percent reduction from the 2018 reference point. As South Korea explains in its CTF table 3, there are methodological differences between the calculation of emissions for tracking the NDC and the most recent national GHG emissions inventory. Therefore, the national GHG inventory cannot be used to provide additional time series data, but we draw from South Korea’s GHG inventory data in CRT table 10s6 (total with LULUCF). Data since 2018 is presented to illustrate the five-year recent period, upon which recent trends are calculated, drawing from the GHG inventory data, with the assumption that these trends may apply similarly notwithstanding the differences in NDC scope.Russia: Russia’s CTF table 4 tracks progress as a percentage of 1990’s emissions, with the 2030 NDC target being an emissions level less than 70% of 1990 levels. The CTF table 4 notes the emissions levels for 2021 and 2022. This data matches data presented in CTF table 6. As such, CTF table 6 is used to present data for 1990 to 2022. Data since 1990 is presented because 1990 is the NDC’s base year. Recent trends are calculated based on the recent 10-year period from 2013 to 2022, given substantial variability in emissions, especially LULUCF-related.South Africa: South Africa’s NDC states that emissions in 2030 will be between 350 MtCO2e and 420 MtCO2e. South Africa’s CTF table 4 provides NDC emissions data for 2021 and 2022 and tracks progress toward the upper end of the target range for 2030. South Africa’s NDC excludes GHG emissions from natural disturbances. South Africa accounts for its NDC by using its national GHG inventory (including LULUCF) and then subtracting estimated GHG emissions from natural disturbances. South Africa’s BTR provides information on the estimation of GHG emissions from natural disturbances for only 2021 and 2022. As such, a longer time series of data within the scope of the NDC is not available, but we draw from South Africa’s GHG inventory data in CRT table 10s6 (total with LULUCF). Data since 2018 is presented to illustrate the five-year recent period, upon which recent trends are calculated, drawing from the GHG inventory data, with the assumption that these trends may apply similarly notwithstanding the differences in NDC scope.Turkey: To illustrate Turkey’s GHG emissions, data is drawn from Turkey’s CRT, Table 10s6 with data from 1990-2022. Some data from this CRT does not match data reported in Turkey’s CTF. However, during Turkey’s technical expert review by the UNFCCC, Turkey confirmed that the correct data for 2022 matches that of the CRT and not as reported in the CTF (and repeated in a few BTR tables). As such, we use the CRT data for Turkey’s historical emissions. These discrepancies reduce overall understanding of Turkey’s BTR. To illustrate its baseline scenario, data for 2012, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 were drawn from the BTR figure 67. To present data between those points, a linear trajectory was calculated. For example, the presentation of the scenario in 2013 and 2014 is based on a linear trajectory between 2012 and 2015. Recent trends are calculated based on the recent five-year period from 2018 to 2022.United Kingdom: United Kingdom’s CTF table 4.1 provides NDC emissions data for the base year 1990, 2021 and 2022, and provides the NDC emissions target value for 2030. Because the United Kingdom uses data from its national GHG inventory for tracking progress, data from the inventory can be used to present time series data outside of the NDC implementation period. Data from 1990 to 2020 is drawn from the United Kingdom’s CTF table 6 (total, with LULUCF). Recent trends are calculated based on the recent five-year period from 2018 to 2022.United States: United States’ CTF table 4.1 provides NDC emissions data for the base year 2005, 2021 and 2022. In the CTF table 4.1, the U.S. notes its target is 50% of the base year value and does not provide the target value in MtCO2e. To determine the NDC target value, we calculate 50% of the provided 2005 base year value. Because the U.S. uses data from its national GHG inventory for tracking progress, data from the inventory can be used to present time series data outside of the NDC implementation period. Data from 2005 to 2020 is drawn from the U.S.’s CTF table 6 (total, with LULUCF). Recent trends are calculated based on the recent five-year period from 2018 to 2022.