Countries: Afghanistan, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Pakistan, Tajikistan Source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Please refer to the attached file. A. SITUATION ANALYSIS Description of the crisis Since the beginning of 2025 until 30 April 2026, Afghanistan has witnessed the return of more than 3.42 million Afghan nationals (returnees and deportees) from neighbouring countries - one of the largest cross-border population movements recorded in the region since 2021. According to data published by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), approximately 2.1 million individuals returned from Iran, while over 1.25 million returned from Pakistan, with smaller but growing movements observed from Tajikistan, Türkiye, and other countries. These movements form part of a longer trend: an estimated 5.8 million Afghans have returned since September 2023, equivalent to a 10–12 per cent increase in the country’s population over two years. The scale, pace, and sustained nature of these returns continue to exacerbate Afghanistan’s already severe humanitarian crisis. More than half of returnees arrived through western and eastern border provinces where local infrastructure, health systems, shelter capacity, and livelihood opportunities remain critically overstretched. Humanitarian partners report that despite the winter season traditionally limiting mobility, cross-border returns remained consistently high through late 2025 and into the first quarter of 2026, indicating that deportation policies, documentation pressures, and protection concerns continue to outweigh seasonal constraints on movement. Returnees from Pakistan Based on data from UNHCR and Afghan Red Crescent Society (ARCS) border monitoring reports, between 1 January 2025 and 30 April 2026, an estimated 1,335,800 Afghans returned from Pakistan, of whom approximately 208,200 (15 per cent) were forcibly returned or deported. The return trend accelerated following the implementation of the second phase of the government of Pakistan’s ‘Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan’ (IFRP) in April 2025, initially targeting undocumented Afghans and holders of Afghan Citizen Cards (ACC). On 31 July 2025, the Government of Pakistan announced the expansion of the repatriation plan to include holders of Proof of Registration (PoR) cards, significantly increasing uncertainty among the Afghan population residing in the country. Conditions for Afghans in Pakistan deteriorated sharply over the reporting period, with increased arrests, detention, evictions, and restrictions on movement and access to services. These pressures generated a high proportion of forced and pre-emptive returns, often undertaken under distressing conditions and with minimal preparation. At the same time, escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan resulted in cross-border hostilities, intermittent border closures, and disruptions to trade and humanitarian access, producing congestion and unpredictable population movements at key crossings. According to operational monitoring by the ARCS, the highest daily influx from Pakistan during the reporting period was recorded in November 2025, with more than 9,800 individuals crossing in a single day. Most returnees entered Afghanistan through the official border crossings at Torkham (Nangarhar)and Spin Boldak (Kandahar), while smaller cross-border movements were observed through Angur Ada Border Crossing and informal crossing routes in Helmand province. Despite temporary fluctuations linked to border closures and political negotiations, daily arrivals remained elevated through the first four months of 2026, suggesting that return movements from Pakistan are likely to continue throughout the remainder of the year. Returnees from Iran Returns from Iran continued to represent the largest share of cross-border movements during the reporting period. According to UNHCR and IOM border monitoring reports, between 1 January 2025 and 30 April 2026, an estimated 2,099,600 Afghan nationals returned from Iran, with approximately 1,435,400 deported. Accounting for nearly 62 per cent of all recorded returns during the period. Of these returns, more than 1.3 million were undocumented or deported individuals, reflecting intensified migration enforcement and reduced access to temporary residency mechanisms inside Iran. Return movements rose sharply between June and September 2025, with daily arrivals at times exceeding 35,000 individuals per day at the Islam Qala Border Crossing in Herat, making it one of the largest single border movements recorded in the region in recent years. Although daily arrival rates decreased after the mid-year peak, returns remained consistently high through late 2025 and into early 2026. Most returnees entered through Islam Qala and Milak-Zaranj Border Crossing, often arriving with limited belongings, depleted savings, and urgent humanitarian needs. Humanitarian assessments conducted by UNHCR indicate that many returnee households from Iran face acute vulnerabilities upon arrival, including lack of shelter, loss of livelihoods, absence of civil documentation, and limited access to health care. Women, children, older persons, persons with disabilities, and unaccompanied and separated children continue to face heightened protection risks. Returnees from Tajikistan In Tajikistan, entry for Afghan nationals remains limited to those possessing valid passports and visas. At the same time, humanitarian actors, including UNHCR, continue to report cases of arbitrary deportation involving recognized refugees and asylum seekers, heightening concerns about incidences of refoulement. Between January 2025 and April 2026, approximately 2760 Afghanswere recorded returning from Tajikistan. Although fewer than from Iran and Pakistan, these returns continue to raise serious protection concerns due to legal uncertainty, family separation, and restricted access to asylum procedures. Humanitarian Outlook The sustained return of more than 3.4 million people in sixteen months continues to place extraordinary pressure on Afghanistan’s humanitarian response capacity. Border provinces including Herat, Nangarhar, Kandahar, and Nimroz are experiencing increased strain on reception facilities, emergency health services, shelter assistance, and protection referral systems. With deportation policies in neighbouring countries expected to continue throughout 2026, humanitarian actors anticipate that cross-border returns will remain at significant levels, further increasing immediate humanitarian needs and long-term reintegration challenges across Afghanistan.