Myrothecium leaf spot, caused by Myrothecium roridum, is an emerging disease threat to coffee (Coffea arabica L. cv. Chandragiri) nurseries, resulting up to 30% seedling loss and occasionally affecting young field transplants. Although M. roridum was historically considered a weak pathogen, recent increases in its prevalence suggest that climate variability and shifts in local weather patterns may be driving its resurgence. To evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on disease development, a study was conducted during 2018 and 2019, focusing on cumulative rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures and relative humidity. Disease incidence and severity were recorded weekly and correlated with weather data. Interannual comparisons revealed that, during the year 2019 characterized by higher rainfall and humidity and lower temperatures exhibited substantially greater disease index (DI) values and spore spread potential (Sv) than 2018. The dataset consisted of 44 weekly observations (22 per year). Pearson correlation analysis revealed strong positive associations between DI and rainfall (r = 0.76) and minimum RH (r = 0.74) and between Sv and both rainfall (r = 0.72) and DI (r = 0.84). Among six forecasting models tested for one-week-ahead prediction of DI, XGBoost achieved the best performance (RMSE β 5.85, R2 β 0.63). Granger causality analysis confirmed rainfall as a significant temporal predictor of DI and maximum RH as a key driver of Sv, highlighting the role of climate-sensitive weather parameters in disease epidemiology. However, the moderate predictive accuracy and absence of independent validation indicate that the models should presently be considered exploratory rather than operational forecasting tools. These findings suggest that interannual weather variability, particularly fluctuations in rainfall and humidity, may influence the risk of Myrothecium outbreaks in coffee nurseries. Integrating weather-based forecasting models into early warning systems may support the future development of climate-resilient disease management strategies.