Abstract Reconstructing global temperatures from sparse proxy data remains a key uncertainty in paleoclimate science. Here, we apply an emergent constraint framework that combines statistical relationships from paleoclimate model simulations with proxy‐based estimates to infer unknown climate variables. We compiled a new multiproxy data set of tropical land temperature reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which implies tropical terrestrial cooling of −4.2°C (−5.0 to −3.5°C, 95% Confidence Interval, CI). Applying our emergent constraint framework to this terrestrial temperature reconstruction, we derived updated estimates of tropical sea surface temperature (−2.6°C; −3.3 to −2.0°C, 95% CI) and global mean surface temperature (−5.4°C; −6.5 to −4.4°C, 95% CI). These observation‐based estimates support LGM cooling toward the colder end of published ranges, implying that very low equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS < ∼3°C) is unlikely. Our method is adaptable for different time periods and climate variables, providing a flexible framework for integrating proxy and model information.

Read original article