BackgroundRising global temperatures and precipitation variability are intensifying extreme weather events and threatening human health worldwide. In Kenya, climate change is projected to significantly alter the distribution and severity of climate-sensitive diseases, particularly affecting vulnerable populations. This study projects climate extremes and associated health impacts in Kenya through 2050 under two emission scenarios: SSP245 (moderate mitigation) and SSP585 (high emissions).MethodsThe analysis employs a scenario-based approach using IPCC AR6-aligned climate projections (baseline 1995–2014; projections 2030–2050). Key climate indices include precipitation extremes (R20mm, RX5day, SDII, PRCPTOT) and temperature indicators (mean temperature, Excess Heat Factor). Climate projections are integrated with population exposure patterns and climate-sensitive health outcome literature to assess future health risks across Kenya’s diverse regions.FindingsBoth precipitation and temperature extremes are projected to intensify nationwide, with substantially greater impacts under SSP585. Increased rainfall intensity and flooding might amplify water-borne disease outbreaks and disrupt health services, particularly in western and coastal regions. Rising temperatures and increased heatwave frequency could escalate heat-related illnesses and non-communicable diseases, while expanding the geographic range of vector-borne diseases (malaria, dengue). Demographic growth and urbanization, especially in informal settlements, might substantially increase population exposure to these climate-health risks.ConclusionKenya faces escalating climate-health threats, with severity contingent on global emission trajectories. Urgent, sustained climate mitigation and adaptation are essential to minimize future health burdens. The study recommends prioritizing climate-resilient health system strengthening, establishing integrated early warning systems, and implementing cross-sectoral adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable populations and enhance national climate-health preparedness.