IntroductionUnderstanding precipitation extremes is critical for effective water resource planning and agricultural management.MethodsThis study assessed historical and future precipitation extremes in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the United States. Multiple NEX-GDDP CMIP6 models were evaluated against PRISM data first to identify top performers. Three models, GFDL-CM4, GFDL-CM4-gr2, and INM-CM5-0, were selected, and their ensemble mean was used to analyze historical (1985β2014) and projected mid-century (2050s; 2041β2070) and late-century (2080s; 2071β2,100) conditions under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.Results and discussionResults show that precipitation extremes vary across space and time. Areal-average results show that, by the 2050s, eight extreme indices (excluding PRCPTOT and R10mm) increase under both scenarios relative to the historical period. By the 2080s, these indices continue to rise under SSP5-8.5, while all indices increase under SSP2-4.5. In terms of the areal average, all ten indices show decreasing trends in the historical period. In the 2050s, trends reverse to increases for most indices except CDD and CWD, which continue to decline. By the 2080s, trends diverge by scenario: under SSP2-4.5, most indices increase, whereas under SSP5-8.5, most indices decrease. Even though there is variation in the trends of precipitation extremes in the historical, 2050s and 2080s periods, there is no significant trend in any of the areal averages. At the grid level, the SGP region displays significant spatial heterogeneity where certain grids show a trend towards an increase in precipitation extremes, whereas others depict a decreasing trend. Although areal averages suggest weak or uncertain overall trends, significant local changes highlight the need for location-specific water management and agricultural planning.