Research Papers
Peer-reviewed research papers and academic studies on climate change
PhysicsâBased Versus AI Weather Prediction Models: A Comparative Performance Assessment of Atmospheric River Prediction
Abstract Machine learning (ML) poses a potential paradigm shift in weather forecasting, but critical questions arise regarding its ability to predict highâimpact weather events. This study evaluates five stateâofâtheâart ML...
Tropical TCV as a Process Diagnostic: Connecting Probability to Processes in kmâScale Models Via Moisture Budget Statistics
Abstract Observations show a bimodal frequency distribution in total column vapor (TCV) over tropical oceans, with convective rainfall predominantly produced on the moist side of the frequency minimum between two...
Sediment Legacy Organic Matter Amplifies NutrientâDriven Coastal Hypoxia: A Coupled BenthicâPelagic Modeling Study
Abstract Coastal hypoxia is profoundly affected by sediment depletion of oxygen and recycling of nutrientsâprocesses sustained by longâterm accumulation of sediment organic matter. While sedimentâwater interactions are widely recognized, quantitative...
Lithospheric Mantle Heterogeneity Drives Delayed Magmatism and Wide ContinentâOcean Transitions in Rifted Margins
Abstract The formation of wide, magmaâstarved continentâocean transition (COT) zones remains incompletely understood. We use 2âD thermoâmechanical numerical experiments, coupling hydrous mantle melting with parameterized crustal accretion, to explore controls...
Vertical Land Motion and Human Exposure Across India's Coastal Regions
Abstract In India, over 200 million people live within 100 km of the coastline, and many reside in lowâlying areas exposed to increasing flood risks associated with seaâlevel rise. However,...
Investigating the Periphery Region in Warm Cumulus Clouds
Abstract Warm cumulus clouds are key components of Earthâs weather and climate systems, yet mixing processes within them and their interaction with their environment remain a major source of uncertainty...
New Insights Into the Cooling of the Oceanic Lithosphere From SurfaceâWave Tomographic Inferences
Abstract How oceanic plates cool and thicken with age remains a subject to debate, with several thermal models supported by apparently contradictory data. Combining a novel imaging technique that balances...
Atmospheric and Deposition Responses of 10Be to Volcanic Eruptions Inferred From the AerosolâClimate Model ECHAM6.3âHAM2.3âSALSA2.0: 10Be
Abstract 10Be deposition in ice cores is widely used for solar reconstructions, but its interpretation is complicated by volcanic influences. Using the stateâofâtheâart aerosolâclimate model ECHAM6.3âHAM2.3âSALSA2.0: 10Be, we assess the...
Modulation of the MidâLatitude Ionospheric Sporadic E Layer by the Northern Polar Vortex
Abstract The sporadic E (Es) layer is a prominent ionospheric irregularity mainly driven by vertical wind shear at midâlatitudes. Hereby we statistically investigate for the first time Es responses to...
Landward Acceleration of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall Along the South China Coast
Abstract Accurate forecasts of nearâlandfall TC characteristics (direction, translation speed, and intensity) are essential for timely disaster preparedness. Using bestâtrack data (1951â2023), this study reveals a significant preâlandfall acceleration of...
Seismoacoustic Analysis of Possible VentâDrying Sequence During Phreatomagmatic Activity on 13 July 2021 at Semisopochnoi Island, Alaska
Abstract Pulseâlike infrasound accompanying volcanic phenomena sometimes suggests interaction with water at the crater. We focus on pulseâlike infrasound observed at Semisopochnoi Island in the Aleutian Arc, Alaska, during the...
Low Cloud Dispersion Effects by Anthropogenic Aerosols in Polluted Air
Abstract Aerosolâcloud interactions (ACI) are a major source of uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing. Anthropogenic aerosols modulate the cloud albedo by impacting the relative dispersion (Îľ) of cloud droplet size...
Deep ConvectionâDriven Downward Transport of Trace Gases and Aerosols From the Free Troposphere to the Boundary Layer
Abstract Deep convective clouds regulate Earthâs energy and moisture budgets, yet their impact on the atmospheric boundary layer (BL) composition remains underexplored. Using longâterm observations from three midâlatitude sites, we...
SolarâWind Triggering of Substorm Onset During the May 2024 Superstorm: Coordinated Global Observations and Simulations
Abstract Substorms are often described by a loadingâunloading cycle, where onset follows gradual accumulation of solar wind magnetic flux in the magnetosphere. Yet observations indicate that intense substorms can also...
Climate Change Will Enhance Hypercapnic Hypoxia Threatening Mangrove Habitats
Abstract Mangroves host many marine species and support fisheries in developing (sub)tropical countries. The suitability of mangrove habitats depends strongly thier the water chemistry. Here, we show how global warming...
Perspectives and opportunities for the intensive use of biochar in Brazil
The use of biochar technology in Brazil holds significant promise for advancing the principles of a circular economy, addressing pressing environmental challenges, and fostering sustainable development. Despite its great potential,...
Spatially explicit global assessment of cropland greenhouse gas emissions circa 2020
Nature Climate Change, Published online: 13 February 2026; doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02558-4Emissions from croplands are an important source of GHG emissions that can be shaped by management. This study presents maps of emissions...
Emergent climate change signals within Antarctic sea ice and associated ecosystems
Nature Climate Change, Published online: 13 February 2026; doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02561-9The authors model the emergence of climate-driven changes in Antarctic sea ice, phytoplankton, krill, fish and penguins. They show earlier emergence for...
Irreversible Transitions of the Ocean Circulation in Antarctic IceâShelf Cavities
Abstract Ice shelves fringing the Antarctic continent experience low or high basal melt rates depending on local shelf conditions, ocean circulation and intensity of iceâseaâair exchanges. Recent studies have uncovered...
Observations and Modeling of the LongestâRecorded Delayed Sprite
Abstract Transient luminous events (TLEs), such as sprites, have been investigated via observations and simulations for decades. Recent TLE research has focused on effects leading to the delay of a...
Living with drought: climate change perceptions, adaptation, and mitigation among farmers in rural Bangladesh
The paper presents a new behavioural model that collectively focuses on how the smallholder farmers in the drought-prone Barind Tract of Bangladesh perceive, mitigate, and adapt with the effects of...
Accuracy-directed climate reasoning: how self-efficacy, interest, confidence and judgments relate to knowledge and reasoning outcomes
This study examined how cognitive and motivational factors relate to individualsâ reasoning about climate change and sustainability. Specifically, we investigated whether self-efficacy, interest, and confidence in accomplishing environmental sustainability tasks...
How extremes in surface incident solar radiation shape its long-term trends in China and Europe
Although extremes of surface incident solar radiation (Rs) are critical for climate and energy assessments, their long-term variations and contributions to Rs trends remain poorly understood. Leveraging the recently homogenized...
Regional trains and air pollution: estimating avoided NO2 concentrations through a natural experiment
Regional rail services offer a cleaner alternative to private road vehicles, contributing to environmental quality in terms of reduced pollution. However, air pollutant concentrations reductions are not observable, and the...
Inconsistency between mixed layer depth and near sea surface stratification over the global ocean
Mixed layer depth (MLD) and near-surface stratification (derived from bulk and subskin density) are crucial variables for defining stability within the upper ocean. Conventional paradigms generally describe the relationship between...
Eurasiaâs transition from colder winters to hotter summers driven by North Atlantic airâsea interaction and Arctic sea ice anomalies
Extreme cold winters and hot summers over Eurasia are intensifying under global warming, posing substantial risks to agriculture, ecosystems, and human health. Here, we show that a colder winter tends...
Drought impacts on global crop production decline despite its frequency and severity intensifying
Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of droughts, posing a significant threat to global crop production. Accurately quantifying drought impacts is challenging and critical for mitigation. Here, we...
Seismic Waves Do Sense Fracture Connectivity: Experimental Validation
Abstract Fracture connectivity is a key parameter controlling fluid flow throughout the Earthâs crust. While some theoretical and numerical studies suggest that seismic waves are sensitive to fracture connectivity, an...
On the Beam Characteristics of XâRay Bursts Observed in RocketâTriggered Lightning
Abstract Employing the multiâstation Thunderstorm Energetic Radiation Observation System, we detected Xâray bursts during two rocketâtriggered lightning events in 2024. By innovatively integrating optical imaging with threeâdimensional lightning channel reconstruction...
Formation of Secondary Structures Associated With the Gradient Drift Instability in the HighâLatitude Ionosphere
Abstract The gradient drift instability (GDI) commonly occurs in the highâlatitude ionosphere and is widely recognized for producing elongated striation structures. While previous studies have established the linear growth and...
Future Weakening of the Kuroshio Extension Decadal Variability Revealed by an EddyâResolving Global Climate Model
Abstract The Kuroshio Extension (KE) exhibits pronounced decadal variability, influencing marine ecosystems, fisheries, and regional climate. However, how anthropogenic warming affects this variability remains uncertain due to limited satellite records...
Quantifying HighâFrequency Migrating Tides in the Atmosphere of Mars With Observations From EMIRS, Curiosity and Perseverance
Abstract Thermal tides are global oscillations driven by periodic solar heating that strongly influence circulation and vertical coupling in the Martian atmosphere. Previous studies have focused on the first and...
How Do Projections of Meteorological Droughts Vary Across Models and Regions?
Abstract Quantifying how and where climate change will alter meteorological drought properties is a priority to inform adaptation policies. Here we use the standardized precipitation index to portray future changes...
Leveraging Laboratory Experiments of Shoreline Response to SeaâLevel Rise: A Beach Disequilibrium Perspective
Abstract This study analyzes laboratory data of beach response to seaâlevel rise (SLR), isolating shoreline changes driven by passive flooding (PF) of the beach and consequent waveâdriven processes. The disequilibrium...
HighâResolution Channel Geometry Reveals Contrasting Styles of Gravel River Adjustment
Abstract Rivers selfâorganize to convey water and sediment, giving rise to robust downstream scaling between channel geometry and drainage area, underpinning landscape evolution models. However, these relations rely on limited...
Detectability of Phytoplankton Biomass Extremes Using Simulated Satellite Chlorophyll Observations
Abstract Extreme openâocean phytoplankton events can influence marine ecosystems, yet their global occurrence, drivers, and consequences remain poorly understood. Most largeâscale studies rely on satellite chlorophyll, which provides only a...
Subtropical Atmospheric Response to Extratropical SST Warming in the Western North Pacific Under Atmospheric Internal Variability
Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region have been increasingly recognized as playing a key role in shaping the extratropical airâsea interactions. However, the extent...
FrequencyâDependent Seismic Velocity Variations Reveal Layered Aquifer Behavior Under Groundwater Fluctuations
Abstract Frequencyâdependent seismic velocity variations (dv/v) provide depthâresolved constraints on aquifer behavior under groundwater fluctuations. We analyze 17 years of dv/v time series from ambient noise interferometry in the Chiang...
The Impact of OCOâ2 Seasonally Dependent Sampling on Carbon Flux Estimation in the Northern Tropical Africa
Abstract The large annual carbon source over northern tropical Africa (NTA), inferred from satellite CO2, remains highly debated. Using observing system simulation experiments with Orbiting Carbon Observatoryâ2 (OCOâ2) sampling, we...
Corona Discharges Glow on Trees Under Thunderstorms
Abstract Coronae, which are weak electrical discharges, have long been hypothesized to form on trees under thunderstorms, though never directly observed, characterized, or quantified. Using a newly developed instrument that...
Early psychosocial deprivation alters the refinement of neural dynamics across adolescence
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 123, Issue 6, February 2026. SignificanceAdolescence is a period of major behavioral and neural change. Here, we use modeling to examine how...
Comparative study on the enhancing effects of CaSO4 and CaCl2 supplementation on red mud carbonation
Red mud (RM), a strongly alkaline solid waste generated during alumina production, can undergo carbonation with COâ for mineral sequestration. To investigate the promoting effect of external calcium sources on...
Toddlers expect ingroup loyalty to override personal preferences when outgroups are present
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 123, Issue 6, February 2026. SignificanceIn the presence of outgroups, adults may set aside their personal preferences to align with perceived ingroup...
For reducing premature adult mortality in India, education matters more than income
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 123, Issue 6, February 2026. SignificanceDue to progress in reducing infant mortality, the global agenda for preventing premature mortality in recent years...
Oxidizing pollutants can disrupt nestmate recognition in ants
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 123, Issue 6, February 2026. SignificanceAnts make up to two-thirds of the biomass of all insects and have efficiently colonized most parts...
Diets, dominance hierarchies, and kleptoparasitism drive asymmetrical interactions between wolves and cougars
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 123, Issue 6, February 2026. SignificanceTheory of carnivore interactions has focused on apex carnivores suppressing and facilitating mesocarnivores through âenemies with benefitsâ...
Transmission through muscle tissue shapes polarization signals during cuttlefish courtship
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 123, Issue 6, February 2026. SignificanceMany animal tissues (e.g., muscle fibers and collagen) are translucent yet exhibit rich optical properties such as...
Ancestral and local adaptation contribute to dispersal out of the QinghaiâTibet Plateau in a bumblebee
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 123, Issue 6, February 2026. SignificanceMost species are confined to narrow climatic niches, yet a bumblebee,Bombus pyrosoma,native to the QinghaiâTibet Plateau (QTP),...