Research Papers
Peer-reviewed research papers and academic studies on climate change
Submesoscale AirâSea Interactions as Revealed by SWOT
Abstract At midlatitudes, airâsea interactions have been documented in numerical models, in situ campaigns and satellite observations down to the ocean mesoscales. However little is known about scales of a...
Mind the gap: bringing adolescents and young adults and emotional resilience into climate action
Young people around the world are experiencing a range of emotional responses to the climate crisis. While many are organizing for action, most policies and programs addressing climate change do...
Framework for assessing the climate vulnerability of unpaved roads in Sierra Leone
IntroductionUnpaved roads make up 80% of the global road network and 90% in developing countries. In Sierra Leoneâone of the worldâs most climate-vulnerable nationsâsecondary unpaved roads account for 96% of...
The carbon hoofprint of cities is shaped by geography and production in the livestock supply chain
Nature Climate Change, Published online: 20 October 2025; doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02450-7Meat products represent a large share of the carbon footprints of cities, which are dependent on the characteristics of supply regions. With...
Nitrogen budgets in Europe: a methodology to quantify environmentally relevant flows of reactive nitrogen compounds on a national scale
Reactive nitrogen compounds are responsible for multiple negative impacts while they remain in the environment, changing their state and chemical form. Here we develop a methodology to trace these compounds...
Future intensification of Northern Hemisphere monsoons due to declining remote aerosol pollution
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have significantly shaped historical monsoon precipitation, yet uncertainties persist in the projected response to future emissions. This study employs models contributing at least ten ensemble members to...
The risk and dynamics of unprecedented summer monsoon rainfall over Southeast China under the current climate
Under the influence of Asian summer monsoon, extremely heavy summer rainfall could occur in Southeast China, causing catastrophic social-economic impacts to the region. However, due to limited historical records, it...
A globally relevant data-driven assessment of carbon leakage from forestry
Climate smart forestry (CSF) practices are widely recognized as efficient natural climate solutions. However, leakage accounting for these practices often relies on limited analysis and ad hoc reasoning, leading to...
Identifying critical intervention points for the prevention of cascading climate impacts
Nature Climate Change, Published online: 20 October 2025; doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02456-1Bridging traditional disciplinary silos, a study has mapped cascading climate risks to the European Union through stakeholder-co-produced impact chains and network analysis....
Climate change, marriage and health
Few studies to date have examined the triadic relationship between climate change, marriage dynamics, and health. This review will investigate the speculated causal pathway originating from climate change, influencing marriage...
The Substorms of 26 February 2008: A DataâMining Perspective
Abstract Reconstruction of the magnetospheric magnetic field using swarms of virtual spacecraft provided by data mining confirms seminal in situ evidence (Angelopoulos et al., 2008, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1160495) that on 26 February...
Effects of temperature overshoot amplitude on regional climate
Overshooting a global temperature target before returning back to the target using negative emissions is increasingly being discussed in light of ongoing emissions inconsistent with achieving the goals of the...
Bridging conservation and policy: evaluating national targets to reduce mangrove loss under the KunmingâMontreal biodiversity framework
The KunmingâMontreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) aims to halt biodiversity loss by 2030, with Targets 1 and 3 focusing on reducing forest loss and expanding protected areas. Mangroves, as biodiversity...
Assessing PM2.5 pollution in the Northeastern United States from the 2023 Canadian wildfire smoke: an episodic study integrating air quality and health impact modeling with emissions and meteorological uncertainty analysis
Between June 6 and 8, 2023, wildfires in Quebec, Canada generated massive smoke plumes that traveled long distances and deteriorated air quality across the Northeastern United States (US). Surface daily...
A systematic mapping review of hydrological hazard management in agent-based systems
Agent-based modelling (ABM) is becoming a widely explored method for investigating humanâwater systems, given its ability to represent heterogeneous actors and their decisions. ABM can simulate how humans interact and...
High variation in the surface extent of freshwater ponds creates dynamic Arctic tundra landscapes in the lowlands of Eastern Siberia
Greenhouse gas emissions from Arctic tundra ponds and permafrost thaw provide important positive feedbacks to global warming. However, a high landscape heterogeneity and small size of ponds make it challenging...
Decadal wind-driven eastâwest asymmetry of chlorophyll-a in the Ross Sea region
The Ross Sea, the most productive region of phytoplankton around the Antarctic margin, supports the marine food web in the Southern Ocean. However, the long-term variability of chlorophyll-a production is...
Life cycle emissions of diverse fossil-based hydrogen production pathways for transportation application
Hydrogen potentially plays a key role in the transportation sector while transitioning to a net-zero emissions economy. Low-carbon hydrogen produced from fossil resources is often viewed as a bridge in...
Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost
Permafrost peatlands store vast amounts of frozen carbon across northern landscapes. When ground ice melts, surface subsidence produces thermokarst landforms that expand wetlands at the edges of permafrost plateaus. Thermokarst...
Precrop payoffs: causal machine learning reveals large but variable yield benefits of crop rotation in major breadbaskets
Building sustainable food systems that are resilient to climate change will require improved agricultural management and policy. One common practice that is well-known to benefit crop yields is crop rotation,...
AI-driven insights beneath the surface: deeper ocean layers at play in severe hurricane forecasting
Understanding the underexplored role of deeper ocean layers in hurricane dynamics is pivotal amidst escalating storm intensities and growing threats to coastal communities. While early forecasting approaches focused almost exclusively...
Forecast-based disruptions in the energy sector: economic impacts of anticipatory hurricane responses in US Gulf Coast refineries
Critical energy infrastructure along the US Gulf Coast faces hurricane induced risks. While many studies assess the realized impacts of hurricane strikes, less attention has been paid to the economic...
A methodological framework for assessing the vulnerability of protected habitats and species to extreme weather events
Extreme weather events (EWEs) including storms, heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and cold snaps present an increasing threat to protected habitats and species (PHAS) as well as ecosystem services they provide....
Impact of strong katabatic wind event variability on sea ice dynamics in Terra Nova Bay Polynya, Antarctica
Polynyas along the Antarctic coastline are essential for sea ice production and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). They are formed and maintained by strong and persistent katabatic winds...
Floating offshore wind on the U.S. West Coast: an expert elicitation
California has ambitious offshore wind goals of 2â5 GW by 2030 and 25 GW by 2045. The coastline deep ocean floor calls for floating offshore wind (FOSW), a new technology...
Accelerated soil phosphorus cycling upon abrupt permafrost thaw
Nature Climate Change, Published online: 17 October 2025; doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02445-4The response of the phosphorus (P) cycle to permafrost thaw is unknown, but has implications for carbon dynamics. This study assesses changes...
Abrupt thaw alters phosphorus cycling in alpine tundra
Nature Climate Change, Published online: 17 October 2025; doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02466-zThe impacts of permafrost thaw are widespread across tundra landscapes. Now, research across a series of thermokarst landscapes on the Tibetan Plateau...
Laboratory Realization of MagnetopauseâLike Reconnection in Space Plasma Environment Research Facility (SPERF)
Abstract Magnetic reconnection explosively converts magnetic energy into plasma heating and particle acceleration. At Earthâs magnetopause, reconnection governs solar windâmagnetosphere coupling and drives global convection. Understanding these processes requires resolving...
ENSO Diversity Explains Interannual Variability of the Pattern Effect
Abstract The spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) affects the global radiative budget through the âpattern effect.â While previous studies highlighted the role of El NiĂąoâSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) in...
Mapping Basin Interfaces Using SingleâStation CrossâComponent Correlations: Application to the Central Vienna Basin (Austria)
Abstract We calculate crossâcomponent correlations and receiver functions from teleseismic earthquakes recorded by a seismic nodal array deployed in the central Vienna Basin, Austria. The two methods show similar results....
Quantifying Water Content of a Landfill With ERT Data by Bayesian Evidential Learning
Abstract Accurate estimation of water storage in municipal solid waste landfills is critical for assessing leachateâgeneration risk yet remains challenging due to pronounced heterogeneity. Here we apply Bayesian Evidential Learning...
Influence of Soil Moisture on Surface Air Temperature in Monsoons
Abstract Land plays a pivotal role in modulating weather and climate in monsoon regions, yet our understanding of landâatmosphere interactions remains incomplete. Here we present the informationâtheoretic causal analysis, the...
MultiâYear Ice Dynamics at Køge Bugt Central Glacier Controlled by Bed Topography
Abstract Køge Bugt Central (KBC) is Greenlandâs fourth largest outlet glacier in terms of ice discharge. However, the drivers behind its substantial multiâyear variations in ice dynamics remain unknown. In...
PhysicsâAware Probabilistic Modeling of Subsurface Soil Moisture Using Diffusion Processes Across Different Climate Settings
Abstract We developed a physicsâaware denoising diffusion based probabilistic model for estimating subsurface soil moisture from surface observations. Unlike traditional physicalâbased methods that rely on siteâspecific soil parameters, our approach...
Why Does the Norwegian SeaâBarents Sea Region Have the Smallest Amount of Stratocumulus in Summer?
Abstract The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has sparked research into how clouds form in exposed iceâfree zones. This study delves into the seasonal distribution of stratocumulus clouds...
Investigating the Use of TerrainâFollowing Coordinates in AIâDriven Precipitation Forecasts
Abstract Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models often produce âblurryâ precipitation forecasts. This study presents a novel solution to tackle this problemâintegrating terrainâfollowing coordinates into AIWP models. Forecast experiments...
Investigating Characteristic Droplet Size Distributions in Large Eddy Simulations of Stratocumulus Clouds
Abstract Cloud processes relevant to radiative and precipitation properties depend on the shape of the cloud droplet size distribution. Recent holographic observations revealed that cloud droplet populations do not have...
Extratropical Cyclones Act as a âBridgeâ to the Concurrent Impact of ENSO on the Arctic Oscillation During Boreal Winter
Abstract This study investigates that the concurrent influence of El NiĂąoâSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) mediated through the poleward translation of extraâtropical cyclones (ECs) over the North...
Persistence of the Prereversal Enhancement of the Equatorial Vertical Plasma Drifts Observed by ICON
Abstract An important feature of equatorial ionospheric electrodynamics is the evening prereversal enhancement (PRE) of the eastward electric fields and the associated vertical plasma drifts. The magnitude, timing, and duration...
Unraveling Impact of North Indian Ocean on Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation From Its Pattern Diversity
Abstract The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region associated with Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) is wellâknown as a key factor in impacting the...
Simulation Study of Chorus Wave Modulation and Associated Electron Precipitation
Abstract The modulation of chorus waves on severalâsecond timescales in Earthâs magnetosphere plays a crucial role in modulating electron precipitation intensity, leading to the formation of pulsating aurora. However, the...
Seismic Evidence for Cocos Slab Tearing and Nazca Slab Emplacement in the Southern Costa Rican Subduction Zone
Abstract Precise position and geometry of the subducted slab are crucial for deciphering subduction zone volcanism. This is particularly important in the southern Costa Rican subduction zone, where the Cocos...
Skillful heat-related mortality forecasting during recent deadly European summers
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 122, Issue 41, October 2025. SignificanceHeat-related mortality is a growing issue in Europe, and the continued development of heat warning systems is...
Graph neural networks for predicting metalâligand coordination of transition metal complexes
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 122, Issue 41, October 2025. SignificanceTransition metal complexes (TMCs) are of great scientific and practical interest for applications in catalysis, biological systems,...
Generative AI for navigating synthesizable chemical space
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 122, Issue 41, October 2025. SignificanceGenerative modeling has enabled novel approaches to the design of functional molecules. However, its practical utility has...
Supplyâdemand strategies for near-term climate benefits from hydrogen in the United States
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 122, Issue 41, October 2025. SignificanceHydrogen (H2) is critical for energy decarbonization. Previous H2research has overlooked key dynamics in H2supply and demand....
Multispecies sensory networks and social foraging strategies: Implications for population decline in procellariiform seabirds
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 122, Issue 41, October 2025. SignificanceForaging in the open ocean may require species with different sensory adaptations to use each other to...
Inequality in air pollutionâattributable mortality by income level between and within countries
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 122, Issue 41, October 2025. SignificanceAir pollution is one of the leading causes of adverse health impacts worldwide, particularly in low- and...